• Someplaceunknown@fedia.io
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    23 days ago

    “LLMs such as they are, will become a commodity; price wars will keep revenue low. Given the cost of chips, profits will be elusive,” Marcus predicts. “When everyone realizes this, the financial bubble may burst quickly.”

    Please let this happen

  • Semi-Hemi-Lemmygod@lemmy.world
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    23 days ago

    I wish just once we could have some kind of tech innovation without a bunch of douchebag techbros thinking it’s going to solve all the world’s problems with no side effects while they get super rich off it.

    • ohwhatfollyisman@lemmy.world
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      23 days ago

      … bunch of douchebag techbros thinking it’s going to solve all the world’s problems with no side effects…

      one doesn’t imagine any of them even remotely thinks a technological panacaea is feasible.

      … while they get super rich off it.

      because they’re only focusing on this.

      • azertyfun@sh.itjust.works
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        23 days ago

        Oh they definitely exist. At a high level the bullshit is driven by malicious greed, but there are also people who are naive and ignorant and hopeful enough to hear that drivel and truly believe in it.

        Like when Microsoft shoves GPT4 into notepad.exe. Obviously a terrible terrible product from a UX/CX perspective. But also, extremely expensive for Microsoft right? They don’t gain anything by stuffing their products with useless annoying features that eat expensive cloud compute like a kid eats candy. That only happens because their management people truly believe, honest to god, that this is a sound business strategy, which would only be the case if they are completely misunderstanding what GPT4 is and could be and actually think that future improvements would be so great that there is a path to mass monetization somehow.

        • Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works
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          22 days ago

          That’s not what’s happening here. Microsoft management are well aware that AI isn’t making them any money, but the company made a multi billion dollar bet on the idea that it would, and now they have to convince shareholders that they didn’t epicly fuck up. Shoving AI into stuff like notepad is basically about artificially inflating “consumer uptake” numbers that they can then show to credulous investors to suggest that any day now this whole thing is going to explode into an absolute tidal wave of growth, so you’d better buy more stock right now, better not miss out.

        • peopleproblems@lemmy.world
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          22 days ago

          Yeah my management was all gungho about exploiting AI to do all sorts of stuff.

          Like read. Not generative AI crap, but read. They came to us and said quite literally: “how can we use something like ChatGPT and make it read.”

          I don’t know who or how they convinced them to use something that wasn’t generative AI, but it did convince me that managers think someone being convincing and confident is correct all the time.

          • anomnom@sh.itjust.works
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            21 days ago

            Being convincing and confident without actually knowing is how 9/10s of them make it to the C suite.

            That’s probably why they don’t worry about confidently incorrect AI.

            • Aceticon@lemmy.world
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              21 days ago

              Salesmanship is the essence of management at those levels.

              Which brings us back around to the original subject of this thread - tech bros - in my own experienced in Tech recently and back in the 90s boom, this generation of founders and “influencers” aren’t techies, they’re people from areas heavy on salesmanship, not actually on creating complex things that objectivelly work.

              The complete total dominance of sales types in both domains id why LLMs are being pushed the way they are as if they’re some kind of emerging-AGI and lots of corporates believe it and are trying to hammer those square pegs into round holes even though the most basic of technical analises would tell them that it doesn’t work like that.

              Ultimately since the current societal structures we have massively benefit that kind or personality, we’re going to keep on having these kinds of barely-useful-stuff-insanely-hyped-up cycles wasting tons of resources because salesmanship is hardly a synonym for efficiency or wisdom.

              • anomnom@sh.itjust.works
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                21 days ago

                Yeah yours is a more thorough and less flippant description of what I meant.

                We used to make fun of all the corporate word salad that the Managment would use at my last “real” job. But it really was weird salad all the way down [up].

        • rumba@lemmy.zip
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          22 days ago

          No no, I disagree I think that shoving AI into all these apps is a solid plan on their behalf. People are going to stop recall and shut it off. So instead they put AI components into every app, It now has the right to overview everything you’re doing and every app collects data on you sending it home to update their personalized models for you so they can better sell you products.

        • Alphane Moon@lemmy.world
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          22 days ago

          I think Andreessen is lying and the “techno optimist manifesto” is a ruse for PR.

          a16z has been involved in various crypto pump and dumps. They are smart enough to know that something like “play to earn” is not sustainable and always devolves into a pyramid scheme. Doesn’t stop them from getting in early and dumping worthless tokens on the marks.

          The manifesto honestly reads like it was written by a teenager. The style, the tone, the excessive quotes from economists. This is pretty typical stuff for American oligarch polemics, no?

    • oyo@lemm.ee
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      22 days ago

      Of course most don’t actually even believe it, that’s just the pitch to get that VC juice. It’s basically fraud all the way down.

  • halcyoncmdr@lemmy.world
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    23 days ago

    No shit. This was obvious from day one. This was never AGI, and was never going to be AGI.

    Institutional investors saw an opportunity to make a shit ton of money and pumped it up as if it was world changing. They’ll dump it like they always do, it will crash, and they’ll make billions in the process with absolutely no negative repercussions.

    • metaStatic@kbin.earth
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      23 days ago

      Turns out AI isn’t real and has no fidelity.

      Machine learning could be the basis of AI but is anyone even working on that when all the money is in LLMs?

      • Joeffect@lemmy.world
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        23 days ago

        I’m not an expert, but the whole basis of LLM not actually understanding words, just the likelihood of what word comes next basically seems like it’s not going to help progress it to the next level… Like to be an artificial general intelligence shouldn’t it know what words are?

        I feel like this path is taking a brick and trying to fit it into a keyhole…

        • metaStatic@kbin.earth
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          22 days ago

          learning is the basis of all known intelligence. LLMs have learned something very specific, AGI would need to be built by generalising the core functionality of learning not as an outgrowth of fully formed LLMs.

          and yes the current approach is very much using a brick to open a lock and that’s why it’s … ahem … hit a brick wall.

          • Joeffect@lemmy.world
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            22 days ago

            Yeah, 20 something years ago when I was trying to learn PHP of all things, I really wanted to make a chat bot that could learn what words are… I barely got anywhere but I was trying to program the understanding of sentence structure and feeding it a dictionary of words… My goal was to have it output something on its own …

            I see these things become less resource intensive and hopefully running not on some random server…

            I found the files… It was closer to 15 years ago…

              • taladar@sh.itjust.works
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                22 days ago

                Also a bit sadistic to be honest. Bringing a new form of life into the world only to subject it to PHP.

              • Joeffect@lemmy.world
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                22 days ago

                I’m amazed I still have the files… But yeah this was before all this shit was big… If I had a better drive I would have ended up more evil than zuck … my plan was to collect data on everyone who used the thing and be able to build profiles on everyone based on what information you gave the chat … And that’s all I can really remember… But it’s probably for the best…

        • Pennomi@lemmy.world
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          22 days ago

          Right, so AIs don’t really know what words are. All they see are tokens. The tokens could be words and letters, but they could also be image/video features, audio waveforms, or anything else.

        • sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works
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          21 days ago

          shouldn’t it know what words are?

          Not necessarily, but it should be smart enough to associate symbols with some form of meaning. It doesn’t do that, it juts associates symbols with related symbols, so if there’s nothing similar that already exists, it’s not going to be able to come back with anything sensible.

          I think being able to create new content with partial sample data is necessary to really be considered general AI. That’s what humans do, and we don’t necessarily need the words to describe it.

  • Greg Clarke@lemmy.ca
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    22 days ago

    largely based on the notion that LLMs will, with continued scaling, become artificial general intelligence

    Who said that LLMs were going to become AGI? LLMs as part of an AGI system makes sense but not LLMs alone becoming AGI. Only articles and blog posts from people who didn’t understand the technology were making those claims. Which helped feed the hype.

    I 100% agree that we’re going to see an AI market correction. It’s going to take a lot of hard human work to achieve the real value of LLMs. The hype is distracting from the real valuable and interesting work.

    • mutant_zz@lemmy.world
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      22 days ago

      OpenAI published a paper about GPT titled “Sparks of AGI”.

      I don’t think they really believe it but it’s good to bring in VC money

      • Greg Clarke@lemmy.ca
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        22 days ago

        That is a very VC baiting title. But it’s doesn’t appear from the abstract that they’re claiming that LLMs will develop to the complexity of AGI.

    • Chozo@fedia.io
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      22 days ago

      Journalists have no clue what AI even is. Nearly every article about AI is written by somebody who couldn’t tell you the difference between an LLM and an AGI, and should be dismissed as spam.

      • Greg Clarke@lemmy.ca
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        22 days ago

        Do you have a non paywalled link? And is that quote in relation to LLMs specifically or AI generally?

    • bean@lemmy.world
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      22 days ago

      I read a lot I guess, and I didn’t understand why they think like this. From what I see, are constant improvements in MANY areas! Language models are getting faster and more efficient. Code is getting better across the board as people use it to improve their own, contributing to the whole of code improvements and project participation and development. I feel like we really are at the beginning of a lot of better things and it’s iterative as it progresses. I feel hopeful

  • acargitz@lemmy.ca
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    22 days ago

    It’s so funny how all this is only a problem within a capitalist frame of reference.

    • masquenox@lemmy.world
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      21 days ago

      What they call “AI” is only “intelligent” within a capitalist frame of reference, too.

      • Hazor@lemmy.world
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        21 days ago

        I don’t understand why you’re being downvoted. Current “AI” based on LLM’s have no capacity for understanding of the knowledge they contain (hence all the “hallucinations”), and thus possess no meaningful intelligence. To call it intelligent is purely marketing.

  • Blackmist@feddit.uk
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    22 days ago

    Thank fuck. Can we have cheaper graphics cards again please?

    I’m sure a RTX 4090 is very impressive, but it’s not £1800 impressive.

      • Blackmist@feddit.uk
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        21 days ago

        I just don’t get whey they’re so desperate to cripple the low end cards.

        Like I’m sure the low RAM and speed is fine at 1080p, but my brother in Christ it is 2024. 4K displays have been standard for a decade. I’m not sure when PC gamers went from “behold thine might from thou potato boxes” to “I guess I’ll play at 1080p with upscaling if I can have a nice reflection”.