Yeah, and they’re probably not making much profit on it. The cost of components is ludicrous.

They’re kind of fucked with the steam machine & frame. Unless they can source cheap components they’ll probably have to price the things so high it pretty much ensures these products are DOA. I dunno, maybe they’ll keep delaying release.

Edit - I just checked, the prices have not gone up in my region, at least not yet. And they’re actually available again.

AI’s demand for memory is pretty difficult to really get across because there’s a lot of complex factors, but whatever you can imagine is the demand, it’s higher than that.

You can look at pre and post AI to get a slightly better picture, but then the numbers don’t look terrible and so the demand isn’t as clear.

2020-2023 primary customers were smartphones, laptops, PC. Data centers were eating about 32% of the global market for RAM. Monolithic DDR4/DDR5 was the main product and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) was about 8%. Total memory set being sold was like 16GB kits to 64GB kits, obviously server kits were going out, just the majority was those mostly for PCs.

2025 hits and the primary customer is AI Data Centers. To put it at scale, you have literally everything that uses memory (and I mean literally every fucking thing on this planet) and AI Data Centers. And the break between those two bins are 30% and 70%. AI data centers are consuming more than twice the memory of literally everything combined that uses RAM that isn’t an AI data center.

The primary RAM being made now is HBM, which is way more complex. 23% of all the wafers that will be used to make integrated circuits will be HBM RAM. And by wafers, I mean all the chips that will be made this year, lock, stock, and barrel. If you randomly picked up a wafer out of a fab you have a almost 1 in 4 chance to pick up RAM. And finally the average kit going out is 1TB to 2TB kits, which is a lot more than the old 16GB to 64GB kits.

Now I mention HBM because it eats more wafer, that’s because unlike DDR4/5 RAM, HBM RAM is a three-dimensional circuit. 12 to 16 layers of silicon is stacked on top of each other. So HBM consumes about 300% more silicon than other memory (not every layer is one-to-one in size). So you don’t just have one fab making chips, you have several fabs making the layers.

The next thing is that building fabs is complex. I hate trying to explain the complexity, but you can’t do it overnight. Usually you have to build these things over the course of five years. Just to give you some idea of how technical the construction is. If you had a road within 500 feet of a chip fabricator sitting on a regular concrete floor, the car driving on the road would create enough shakiness in the Earth to cause the chip fabricator to bounce around too much. So when they build the place that have to literally isolate the small earth quakes humans walking around inside the place cause. This requires very complex floor building. And this is just the floor, not to mention how clean the place has to be kept, isolated as much as possible atmosphere, literally specific sections are under vacuum. It’s massively complex to build ONE of these.

The complexity comes with a price tag. Average cost to build one memory making factory is around $15B to $20B. It’s serious cash, but even if you have 5 years and $20B, there’s a specific bottleneck. ASML. ASML is the only company on the entire face of the Earth that makes the chip making machines. They’ve indicated that if you ordered a machine today, you can expect it roughly 1½ to 2 years from now. That’s how many people have put in an order for the machines to make memory.

So all that aside, there’s one more bottleneck. HBM has to be stacked in layers, there are very few people on this planet that can do that, and they have years long backlog. And even then, most times the stacking fails. About 30% to 50% of all HBM is trashed because the layers fell apart. And the people who stack are entirely different people than the layer makers. But they’re the same people that take that DDR4/5 wafer and cap it into that little black rectangle you see on your sticks of memory. So they have pretty much ~100% of their employees doing nothing but stacking layers of memory together.

Another thing is economic prioritization, HBM is about 500% more than DDR4/5’s price tag per GB. A fab producing wafers of DDR4/5 is making about $x.xx. A fab producing a couple of the layers for HBM is making about 500% × $x.xx on average (it’s complicated because of the layers), even with the stacking issues. And the profit margin on HBM is 70% versus DDR4/5 before AI which was fingernail thin. SK Hynix was actually taking a loss on production of DDR5 at about -1.6%. So going from -1.6% to 70% profit has created a crowding out effect. Not to mention that since there was a bit of a bleeding out period after COVID, some literally stopped making RAM. Which has made the issue even worse.

The last thing before I run out of characters is the AI growth. AI needs about 300% more memory every ten months. That’s how fast these models are growing. That’s caused a panic buying and also caused a rushing to fulfill. The industry is losing it’s collective mind because the money to be made is big and so lots think it can’t last and trying to get their cut before the gravy train derails.

There are very few places on earth that are capable of producing the silicon wafers used in RAM. These factories are still producing at the same rate as before but buyers who pay more (large companies with data centers) are buying them so there are fewer left over for normal consumers (hence the high prices). So why not scale up by making the factories bigger or faster? They are, it will take decades to do that because the process is so advanced. Why not just scale out by building more factories for producing the parts? They are, but that too will take decades.

I’m not going to look this up, because I’m expecting that there’s a number of reasons, but you can pretty much point the finger at supply and demand of components, as well as inability for companies to scale production, and the fact this is likely a bubble.

Think about it from the standing of a ram manufacturer. You’re already pumping out as much product as physically possible, or you need components or materials from other vendors. You aren’t just sitting on idle machines, if there’s a market what what you’re doing, you’re going to push as much of it as you can. All of a sudden, you can charge more because there’s a ram shortage, but you can’t scale up your business because with this rise there’s likely to be an equal fall in the not too distant future, and scaling up production is a slow process. Even if you did, there’s a strong possibility that you’d be restricted by other bottlenecks.

It’s a huge business risk for not much reward. Better to take the win, do what you can try maximise it without exposing yourself to potential losses.

That is SO not worth it. Everything is completely fucked. Guillotining Sam Altman may not drop prices, but I still think it’s a terrific fucking idea.

https://youtu.be/zyQwAhppWj8

It’s almost by design. Take personal computing away from the masses. Control what can be done and learned on a cloud device. More control over the masses with the benefit of a cloud computer subscription.

Consumer spending is something like 68% of the US economy. I suspect that’s the case in most countries?

Consumer spending drives the US economy.

Thanks OpenAI*

Don’t forget the body count!

There’s better handhelds out there now, but they’re more expensive. The Lenovo legion go 2 is supposed to be good if you install bazzite or steam os on it but the top end models are like £2000

At this stage, the price hike of the steam deck is probably more about making the price of the upcoming Steam Box and VR headset look like an easier pill to swallow, and not about actually needing to raise the price of the steam deck.

I definitely wouldn’t have gotten one if it was more than the $350 I paid. Although after I got one I would have considered paying more.

Noooo way would I pay $750+

Not if everyone else goes up too

I mean, it was also popular because it was relatively open in a field of closed handhelds. You could play, basically, whatever you wanted on it. Price was a factor as well… but it was never cheap. Just less expensive than other options.

For real. Doesn’t this just push people toward some of the cooler Lenovos, etc?

Nah. It’s all relative. If everything goes up accordingly, then steamdeck will remain a good buy.

Turns out I should have bought an OLED even though I already had the first version…

My laptop is worth more than i bought it 3 years ago. Strange world.

I was an OG pre-order and this price point would have been a big fat hell nah from me. Even more true 4+ years later.

Same, and I too bought the LED and OLED. I sold my LED for $420 (with the new 1 TB SSD from the OLED I bought, added back grips and the original dock) to my friend cause he wanted to get one for his brother.

Or firebombs and guillotines…

NO WAGE ONLY CONSUME

And somehow weed street prices

Except games are $80…

It’s been the budget option anyway in value, if not price.

https://swappa.com/listings/steam-deck

Frankly, I’d recommend just buying a Mint condition Steam Deck from Swappa or eBay. And I’d recommend doing it soon BEFORE these sellers catch on to the price increase.

Likewise, I’ve been unemployed for 18 months and have watched as several things I would really like to get have become too expensive anyway.

(the comma is a decimal point)