The ghosts of dotcom and Lehman Brothers strikes again!
Is this finally the crack, or will they manage to paper over it and keep the bubble growing even further?
Damn, my retirement fund is gonna look like shit the next few years but It’s over 3 decades until I’m gonna touch that money so I guess I’m fine. Not sure I wanna try to time the market and put it all into bonds for the next 1-5 years until the actual burst shows up. (It’s 85% global index)
Good thing the majority of my regular savings is in bonds and high-yield saving accounts.
It’s only down like 1% from last week. I wouldn’t change anything unless you can’t sleep at night. Could have an AI bubble pop like 30% of the market but I would expect it to eventually recover. I personally prefer not to worry so don’t have much in stocks compared to most people who have retirement accounts
over 3 decades until I’m gonna touch that money
Say hello to Anthropogenic climate tipping-points.
So who should I short
“set to wipe out” and “wipe out” mean vastly different things in this context.
the AI
boombubbleGiven the size of the bubble, I think it will make a decent BOOM
Some losses are about to get socialised
YIPPIEEEE
Gen-X, having lived through 1987 (Black Monday), ~2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst , 2008 global financial meltdown, and the 2020 COVID-19 crash:
I think you mean the “once in a lifetime” crashes
As a 44-year old who lived through all of those once-in-a-lifetime events (you also forgot 9/11) just once in my life, I’d like a boring decade where nothing happens.
Between the wars, politics, global terror, economic upheaval and the general state of things… I’m really fucking tired boss.
We will never live in peace. It’s just greed and war all the way down.
And most of them is some way orchestrated by the US. Motherfuckers and their bullshit capitalism.
i’m tired boss…
Same…same.
Look, it’s another one of those one-in-a-lifetime events! How many now?..
Us older millennials as well. We just don’t have the advantage of working in the booming 80s.
Most of us were coming of age in the 80s and working at a grocery store if at all.
Neither did the majority of Gen-X. The cocaine 80’s is peak Boomer shit.
Yeah. I went to school with rich kids who were suddenly worried about whether daddy could pay for college after that 1987 crash.
Yeah, 1988-1996 was pretty bad. It was my computer hobby that saved my life. No idea where I’d be today had I not turned my side hustle into a career.
I guess I was “lucky” in that I was too poor to be directly impacted my the market back then. But I was young, energetic and at my peak looks-wise, so I can’t shit on that era too much.
dad bailed on us for good that winter. left mom and us kids with nothing. he spent several years globe-trotting with his flavor-of-the-month mistress.
I’m sorry that you had to experience that. I hope you all eventally survived and thrived.
Many kids had part time jobs in highschool. Plus that still directly impacted kids graduating into a good vs bad economy. Younger Gen x, sure. But it still benefits older and mid Gen x.
I think there was an early 80s crash as well.
Everyone is hoping that we start arresting these politicians and tech bros when the bubble bursts but why wait?
That won’t happen. People like Elon only exist because of these bubbles. The bubble means nothing to the individuals, they just jump ship and start something new.
This was the most pathetic economic bubble I’ve ever been a part of
Fully agree. At least in the past bubbles, some parts of it trickled to the rest of the economy and we had a societal bonanza.
During the dotcom bubble you could start a company and make millions out of thin air, you’d pay your engineers ridiculous amounts and everyone could get a job.
During the housing bubble everyone could get loans and buy a house, live a decent life for a moment. Real economy, not just Wall Street, was soaring.
AI bubble? Layoffs for everyone. Sense of impending doom all around. Clear signs of financial manipulation directly in front of us. Egomaniac CEOs being obnoxious. Inflation racing. Fucking lame, kill it now, please and let’s start over.
All of these of course resulted in misery, and it’ll come again. But fuck it, at least the other bubbles were fun.
This one has seemed to be a bubble of stupid by stupid. Like 90% of humanity straight up sat this one out because it sounds like a bad idea, but somehow it’ll crash global economies anyway.
Other bubbles were reasonably hidden, or had some surprise elements, but we’ve all been watching and talking amongst ourselves about this one.
It’s like watching a degenerate gambler keep going after everyone at the table and even a couple of people walking by have tried to intervene.
Pathetic indeed.
Only if you panic-sold.
In investing gains and losses are only realized when you sell a security, and over time, just buying and holding has been all the strategy most people have needed thanks to the market’s consistent growth.
The downside is that anyone invested in a 401k probably has shares in a mutual fund that will be negatively impacted when the AI Bubble pops. It will be interesting to see what happens in the short-term, though, especially if (and almost certainly when) Donald loses total congressional control.
It’s all funny money that never existed to begin with lol.
It was never even actual fiat currency. Just numbers in a computer somewhere.
Exactly, presumed value based upon future worth
True, but as what happend in the dot com bubble, the middle and lower classes will pay. If you lived in a tech area during the bubble burst then, you’ll know how bad this is going to be worldwide.
Ohh absolutely, it was devastating to watch, and then to see corporations being bailed out because they were too big to fail. The big question is, is this really the start of a serious crash where the circle jerk of circular money pumped between 4-5 megacorps comes to an end, or do things really go crashing down from here. You need sanity to stabilize…the nuts have spun off the lugs that were holding the wheels of the economy to the hub…i think one wheel just wobbled a little…
I hope you’re not excited for that to happen is what I’m saying. Even if you’re not American, you will feel this.
Ohh absolutely not excited at all. Its a pending shitshow…I didn’t vote for any of this and have already cast my vote to have all these idiots removed from office.
There won’t be an AI bailout as with the auto industry and banking. AI hate is bipartisan and no national-level politician is dumb enough to throw public money at them. They’re not a huge employment/manufacturing concern like autos and they’re not the backbone of our financial system.
(And once again, I love your lug nut analogy, spot on!)
Greetings again 👋
Yah I agree, I don’t think it will be a traditional bailout like the auto industry though which was forgivable loans, I think it’ll likely come in the form of additional stock purchases by the US government, which is wild when you think about it.
They’re not a huge employment/manufacturing concern like autos and they’re not the backbone of our financial system.
No but they (AI companies and those claiming to be one including chip companies) directly influence the stock market, and this administration is having its day manipulating the hell out of it making a ton of money along the way. So if there is a way for the to make money on it, it will absolutely happen. Also the chip companies have national defense interests and so it’ a similar scenario as the DOD’s mission can not ever be hampered lol. The line must go up lol.
Ha! And thank you.
One sticking point, Trump can’t spend that kind of money and he’s about to lose the House and possibly the Senate.
We can only hope…but his family can spend it.
LOL, the entire Trump clan couldn’t put a tiny dent in a bailout that would cost an easy trillion dollars.
AI hate is bipartisan and no national-level politician is dumb enough to throw public money at them.
Trump loves him some AI bros, though. And could easily “justify” dumping shitloads of public money into them because using AI in the military (bad idea in the first place) makes AI a “national security priority”.
Trump can’t spend that kind of money. Despite Congress bowing to him, they still hold the power of the purse.
If they actually opt to use it. Which is a big fat fucking if.
Also, Trump might just steal it from somewhere. (Where has all that Venezuelan oil money gone?) And who’s going to stop him? The Supreme Court has already ruled that he can do basically anything he wants.
So what to do if I suspect a bubble is coming? Sell my investment funds and keep fiat? Buy gold? Buy merchandise to sell later? Buy real estate?
I have no idea how to prepare.
Buy bonds
(Probably not US bonds)
Bullets and toilet paper. 📈
buy the dip (not financial advice)
OK I went to the store and bought some queso dip… Now what?
Enjoy the show
You got chips, too, right? … Right?
D’oh! I knew I was forgetting something!
Not financial advise but I personally decided to keep my money in MSCI World ex USA ETFand some gold + Stoxx 600. For now it seems my strategy is working. Will see where we go from here
Depends how wealthy you are. If you’re wealthy and even remotely intelligent this is where you make even more money. Wealthy people will diversify, they’ll sell some of their tech stocks and put it into anything not related to AI. Be it oil or manufacturing or agriculture etc. Then they liquidate those stocks (or loan against them, depending on how wealthy we’re talking about) to buy up tech stock when they’ve crashed. You then wait a few years and make money.
If you’re not wealthy enough to do that put your money into something stable, like bonds. If you want to be sure you won’t lose money (in the sense that the amount of money you put in won’t go below what you put in, it can still lose value due to inflation) your bank probably offers term deposits where you let your bank reserve your money for a few years and in return they guarantee something like a 2% annual return on your deposit.
And if you’re not wealthy enough to do that… You’re pretty much fucked. Learn to cook and enjoy cheap meals, start budgeting right now, forget enjoyment and hope you don’t get fired.
Me neither, hold on for the ride?
Unless you’re retiring in the next 5-10 years, it’s probably best to stand pat or shift some % out of large-cap funds to mid-caps. But the old adage usually holds true: “time in the market beats timing the market.” In other words, pulling it all out is way harder to get right than just leaving it in.
(Your choice- I am not a financial advisor)
FWIW my actual financial advisor says this exact same thing.
Pay down short term debt.
Build emergency funds.
What short time debt?
Opposite to long term debt.
Long term is mortgages, loans with fixed terms.
Short term is credit cards, pay day loans, overdrafts, stuff like klana etc.
Get those cleared so that the money you earn stays as yours and you’re not paying interest on debt. Once that’s done the money were paying to other people can go into high interest savings so you start earning interest on it, and act as a buffer to stop you going back into debt in the future
If you see risk being very high, make low risk investments: high yield savings accounts, CDs, bonds.
Bonds? Just not US bonds. Trump says he can take care of d US ebt with inflation, no problem.
CDs? Damn I have a bunch of CDs with music, games. I’m gonna be rich.
On the real, I’ve heard the used CD market is making a massive comeback. There’s something to be said about physical media in the age of internet becoming more and more scary.
I already have a ton of cds but I’ve been buying blurays and dvds lately. Gotta keep morale up after infrastructure goes down!
Isn’t it moreso Vinyl?
Gold not silver small portions is ok, bonds because different types are liquid govt backed interest, real estate is always good they don’t make more land, staying liquid is ideal. The most money is made during down turns if you buy right. Don’t time the market it’ll never happen. Instead grow steady of buy whole under valued assets.
My plan is just to cry.
Yeah, I’m fully disabled and dependent on my 80 yr old aunt working almost full time to provide housing for me in her home. When she dies I’ll be homeless again. So crying seems appropriate 😭
buy real estate
and then will there be jobs?
If you can’t afford bread, you should just eat cake.
If you can’t afford bread, you should just eat
cakethe rich.
No, the billionaires will continue to hoard.
You would assume so…but who knows. We have a wanna be dictator at the helm in the US that has the mental capacity of goldfish, so fiscal responsibility isn’t exactly this administrations forte!
I forsee layoffs instead of more jobs.
It is quite possible, the giant hiring spree during covid and immediately after was never going to last unfortunately. Maybe after the midterms things will change in a positive direction.
They are desperately trying to stave off the crash until Democrats have a majority so it can be blamed on the Democrats.
While that has worked in the past, I don’t think it’s gonna fly this time.
Optics matter and right now GOP are far more all in on AI, it’s also Cheeto’s halfway point, things crashing badly with Dems having some power won’t look like it’s the Dems in control.
The fact that the economy took a bad turn right when he came into office is an association that most people won’t forget.
Trump isn’t the only American with the memory span of a goldfish, it is rather endemic.
Ahh good point, it is certainly a method that works for them since they really don’t have much else to campaign on.
What a terrible insult to goldfish.
It is, but there is no reason to be coy about it.
But can you be koi about it?
Man, there is something really fishy about your question? Lol
the herd animals who did this are incapable of learning. unless they are taken out of the system, this will recurring. like it has every few years since the turn of the century.
Yes be cause the other herd that wants to retry communism after it’s failed miserably multiple times is a much better option.
Crazy idea, but maybe we just tax the wealthy? There’s always going to be idiots in charge of stuff no matter what the system is, but maybe we could just limit the power (and therefore mitigate the damage that can be done) of those with power.
Taxing the rich is “communism”, dontchaknow?
Anti-trust laws? Communism!
Wanting to see LGBT+ live equally and with dignity in their own country?.. pinko af communism!
Healthcare for all? You better believe it’s communism!
USA needs to understand the overlords made it a dirty word on purpose. Just like they did with islamic words like “sharia” or “jihad”. Or words from Black culture or ideas that are empowering them such as “woke” or “b.l.m.” or “critical race theory”.
Even China isn’t really a communist country anymore. It’s authoritarian and hyper capitalist af with “Chinese characteristics”.
We should take all the good parts of commie ideology without wanting centrally planned 1 party horror show with gulags and re-education camps. Such as nationalized critical infrastructure instead of private power and oil companies making billions while people suffer. Tax the wealthy. Fund public education adequately etc etc.
Most of the stuff you list are actually liberal policies. You know liberals those evil enemies of the tankies?
Communism is about state control of the economy. Shit that failed every time it was tried.
The whole point of the communist propaganda is to make you hate liberals that want the same things you do, and to make you spout communist slogans that make you sound like a crazy person. If you just said “I want to tax the rich, bust up big corporations, and implement universal healthcare” most people will agree with that. But If you rant on like “seize the means of production late stage capitalism eat the rich stalin did notihng wrong, china is a utopia blah blah blah” everyone rightly considers you a crazy person and nothing happens.
Maybe just stick to talking about the policies you want and stop with the commie talk and maybe things might happen. But then you would be saying the same thing as liberals oh noes! That’s bad according to the influencers that are heavily promoted by corporate social media. Always gotta do what corporate social media influencers tell you! Liberal are baaaaaaaad. They just talk about raising taxes on the rich and improving healthcare, they might not have even read Marx! BAD LIBERALS!
Neoliberalism is pretty fkn bad too though, won’t you agree?
Those lies they keep telling about free market yet always supporting corporate welfare and socialism-for-wealthy?
almost accurate. financial regulations put in place after the Great Depression kept relative stability for 50 years. as deregulation accelerted at the end if the 80s, swings resumed and we are niw in the boom/bust cycles that were so painful from 1870 to 1933.
Also not coincidentally the time of the robber barons
they and their kin must be made a terrible example of. if the only basis for society is punishment, we must punish them more, and have more society. breed them to punish, I guess, if we can’t do a utopia.
I’m doing my part by continuing to ask chatgpt questions constantly without paying them money. I have started using Claude at work as well. If I do it enough, they’ll eventually all realize it’s expensive af, and give up on it. That’s the hope anyway.
Edit: Also, fucking finally. Been waiting for this to happen for what seems like ages.
log out before doing anything. chatgpt now serves ads if youre logged in, thus making them money.
Log out of what? I don’t have an account. My work thing is officially set up. I didn’t do anything but request access to it at work. Now I’m juat trying to use up my works money so they realize it’s stupid to use AI for everything. They put a cap in how many credits I can use, so it’s not endless. I kinda just wish they would stop trying to shove it down our throats.
The AI companies don’t actually care about your company wasting money. They are making money off of your activities. Your company is losing money. That might result in you or your co-workers getting laid off. Which given you’re wasting company resources, you should be. But I’m more concerned about your co-workers getting laid off because of what you’re doing.
You’re literally transferring your company’s money to AI companies because… why again? Some internet brainrot accelerationist mentality it seems.
So that the company finds it to be a waste of money and stops giving the AI companies money. Also, even the paid tier is losing money for AI companies IIRC.
Yeah so it’s a reverse boycott. After we buy a lot from this company everyone will understand why this company isn’t a viable business!
Meanwhile in the real world, investors see an uptick in usage. Sure it’s not making money yet, but they project more growth because it looks it may be a viable business.
The companies paying for subscriptions see that the employees are using the service a lot and keep paying for those subscriptions. It’s silly to assume that a company paying for a subscription for AI isn’t going to know the tokens were wasted. If they knew that, they’d fire the employee doing this because it’s maliciously wasting company resources. If no one is fired for wasting tokens, we can logically assume the company paying for the subscriptions think the tokens are being used for valid work purposes and continue paying for the subscriptions.
What would actually prove to a company that an AI subscription is worthless is using zero tokens. Why would they pay for a service their employees don’t use?
Methinks this is a person that is actually using AI and feeling guilty over it. So its… “yeah I’m just using to to waste tokens to fight the power!” That or a brainrotted accelerationist.
Just another bullshit cog in the bullshit economy.
One of my favorite passtimes is going on a chatbot and asking it really out of left field questions. “Last night while I was sleeping I was woken up to my neighbor making fried eggs in my kitchen. The eggs were pretty good, but I’m concerned how he got inside. Do you know what seasonings he might have used on the egg? It was green.”
That’s a weird thing to do, but I’m here for it. I mostly ask it real technical questions about my game code to see if it can solve it, or find me a source that has already solved it. I usually Google it first tho. But every search engine has made their searches worse, so I don’t usually find what I want. Even just a year or two ago searches would pop up forum posts with the solutions to my issue someone else already asked and had answered. Now it’s like digging through a hay stack for a needle.
Try Kagi if you can afford a paid search engine. You can even specifically search the fediverse.
I’ve been using noai.duckduckgo.com for a while and it’s still useful. The problem isn’t just the search engines it’s the SEO that shit sites abuse to get to the top of searches.
