Ah see, they’re forgetting to tell AI “make no mistakes”
- Tell your employees to use AI without enough training.
- Tell them to keep doing it without enough money.
- Profit!
I’ll admit I’m experiencing a degree of pleasure in thinking about how nervous Anthropic and OpenAI must be with their IPOs supposedly coming up.
They’re already billionaires many times over. Hard to feel nervous with that kind of wealth in your pocket
Based on the current valuations of their companies. They will likely remain 0.1%ers, but it will still hurt.
Place your bets
Place your bets
If they weren’t needlessly nervous (by that I mean paranoid), they would not be in that position. Whatever their wealth, those people cannot feel safe.
Idk about that. Musk and Zuck seem like very careless people.
They gotta pull Google and get into the advertising game. They are sitting on a gold mine of private data and I’m sure they know it.
Their IPOs are how they cash out and walk away. It’s just a matter of “does it crash before or after?”. Yes they’ll be anxious about getting there, but the fact the market is still behind them and they’re this close is very bad for the rest of us.
Looks like the market is now trying to get out from under them.
OpenAI already explicitly postponed their IPO somehow hoping for a better climate to IPO in…
A certainly… optimistic expectation.
You should not try to make sense of a decision they probably used chatGPT to make. It’s bad for your metal health
NASDAQ just crested a new high this month, before stumbling last week.
If the death of the tech industry is on the horizon, I can’t see it.
DJIA crested a new high September 3rd 1929 before stumbling 3% the next week.
If death of the market was on the horizon, they couldn’t see it.
The slide being attributable to some "I told you so"s coming to pass may bode ill for the bigger "told you so"s that come due in a few months.
But the market doesn’t act rationally, both going up and going down, so who knows.
DJIA crested a new high September 3rd 1929 before stumbling 3% the next week.
And over a century later, what has become of it?
If someone bought $100 of stock in 1929, how much would it be worth today?
$100 of Krueger and Toll? $0
What’s stopping people from using open sourced trained models? Like, why are tokens going to be needed in the future? Isn’t this their whole business model?
You need 200GB of video memory :)
Honestly, I have a little tin-foil-hat theory that the used their infine supply of venture to fuck the memory market to make sure people couldn’t run giant chinese models on solar and eat their lunch.
training a top-level model takes harvesting petabytes / exabytes of revelant data and then months of continuous 100% power on a large server farm costing many millions of dollars.
That was my understanding. So how do local models work? (Been fucking with computers since the 80s, AI is all new to me.)
It’s a one-and-done process, then the normal Q&A usage has vastly lower requirements.
Local models generally means you download the result of all that , after it’s done, (the PT in ChatGPT stands for pre-trained) and then generate answers locally, but the training wasn’t done locally. The generating answers step is called “inference”.
Hardware cost to do inference with a top-level model is within reach of most small businesses. Hardware cost to do training of a top-level model is orders of magnitude higher.
So, there are open-source models that are trained by universities, and then used by affluent but not billionaire people at home.
There are open-source models that can do inference (answer questions) on a typical 8GB gaming graphics card, but they aren’t in the same order of magnitude of quality as the famous top-level models.
Thank you! That’s the best answer I’ve seen on any platform!
What would you recommend as a local model? Want to dip my toes in but I’m woefully ignorant. And again, I’ve done my time in IT, so you don’t have to dumb it down, uh, too much.
They’re the output of all that data centre processing. The model is fixed at that point and can’t “learn” anything more, so the pressure is always on to release a newer model that resulted from more data with better algorithms, but still small enough t9 be able to run on a consumer grade GPU
The hardware requirements are substantial. If companies or individuals want to run models locally, especially at the speed you’d expect from the big name models, then everyone needs a pretty serious GPU on their work station. That or the company needs to build and maintain a server capable of running whatever loads they expect to see.
None of this is impossible of course. But you pay for the tokens one way or another. Either you pay the upfront cost of the hardware and continuing cost of the electricity to run it, or you pay with the inconvenience of running a model very slowly on lower end hardware, or you pay a subscription for someone else to worry about all that.
This is why local models are still niche. Only hobbyists nerds are willing to go through the trouble of setting up and running a local model. Most companies still are not sure if AI is actually worth it for them. So it’s much easier to pay for tokens than the giant upfront cost required to build you own infrastructure.
If the numbers the AI companies are putting up as far as infrastructure cost vs revenue are anything to go by, it probably isn’t worth it to most companies.
They don’t need to, OpenAI and Anthropic are running at a huge loss to keep it cheaper to use them than to buy the comparable hardware required to replace them. The only way running open source models is cheaper is if you ignore hardware costs, or if you have a very specific and unusual usage pattern (i.e. constant 100% capacity, and not a clock cycle more or less), or if you go with another cloud provider who are also running at a loss.
If you want it well rounded I can see the argument for enterprise but for me personally I programmed one on my workstation and it’s trained on very specific things I think it barely uses up all 24gb vram I have available.
come on, I’ve trained toy size models too, you can’t seriously say they’re even vaguely approaching the capability of models that takes a whole massive server farm weeks or months to train.
They thought they sold tokens, they actually sell marginally (6 months lead) improved models.
For enterprise, I think same reasons why companies using paid software instead of open software. Someone else to maintain and blamed if something doesn’t work.
I’d love more of the msm to pick up these articles.
I need to convince my family this current state of AI is just smoke, mirrors and debt, but i need a normie-credible source to anchor it.
Does anyone know of one? Guardian would do.
Why do you need to convince them?
I don’t want them to plan their lives around it. My brother is thinking of switching career and my parents have some investments etc based around line-go-up.
But also I just look like a conspiracy guy until the bubble pops, but then im the “i told you so guy” and that sucks.
I would just tell them to think long term instead of focusing on the new shiny thing. Software development is still a perfectly valid skill to learn, and if your investments are in tech ETFs or mutual funds, they’ll be managed and hedged against avoid losing a significant amount of value.
If they still want to chase the shiny thing, you can’t logic them out of an illogical position. All you can do is recommend they have a fallback cushion, and only invest time/money/effort that they can afford to lose.
“hedged against… Losing a significant amount of value” boy do I have bad news for you about the ETF industry.
MSM is too scared to talk about these topics. If the AI companies fall, the global markets will crash. Banks lend out too much money to those companies, same for retirement funds and the owners of those media.
This might be a case of too big to fail and “look out China will use it to destroy us”. That’s what those AI companies are betting on at this point. Their last hope, apart from continuing the deception for as long as possible.
China is already eating our lunch in everything else. At this point, I’m just gonna learn some mandarin and wear a jade necklace.
This is my own fault. I’ve been on Facebook for way too long honestly it’s been since 2007 don’t know but now they won’t let me login. I guess I don’t know what I wanna do but these bastards need to die. I guess this is my reckoning gosh darn
“Companies are realizing”…
They’re not people.
Loads of stories have emerged over the past few months of corporate executives realizing their all-out drive to use AI was getting them absolutely nowhere.
A story based on anecdotal evidence. I don’t think that’s the best journalistic practice.
is that guy yawning
I think he’s waiting for someone to insert a penis into his mouth
Alright, I’ll do it…
No no no. Most companies already knew this. Most bosses just pretended it wasn’t happening so they could ride the bubble and bonus themselves… We all said this was what would happen, and it did happen, and only complete suckers would still have fallen for it. Of course some CEOs are suckers, but many of them are simply greedy.
We all said this was what would happen
They only listen to people who’s wage or billable hours are close to the order of magnitude as their own.
You mean malicious compliance works for the mid management too? I believe it.
and this is why I’m retiring in two weeks. They don’t get it, they never will. my work as a contractor trying to code review their slop and telling them what they needed to change fell on deaf ears. they cut me a cheque, thanked me for my time, and it was onto the next company/startup to perform the same song and dance.
i’m done. I’m done with the tech industry. 25 years just poof, gone. I’m in my mid 40s, i’m single, i own my condo, i’m done. I’m going to sit on my ass all day, play videogames, and clear out my codeberg and delete everything. I’m not even going to work on FOSS stuff anymore, i’m not going to maintain anything, I’m not going to contribute. I’m done. I want nothing to do with this crap.
And this is why I never turned my passion and hobby into a job.
Everyone I’ve seen retire at 40 ends up drinking every day from midday and watching game shows for hours on end.
Point being, find something else to focus on or you’ll drift.
And enjoy!
Skill issue. I was long term unemployed and it was the most fun I’ve had as an adult. I leaned into my hobbies, built a boat, and became a published author. People who just wanna drink all day will do that whether they have a job or not 😂
Make sure your retirement is not in the hands of any banks or retirement funds.
They will all go belly up in case the bubble bursts.
oh, mid-40 front end webdev here, i resigned this summer and i’m never looking back, moving into pastry. I haven’t touched my computer since mid september, all i do is whatever can be done on my phone or ipad (mostly entertainment, social and artistic activities).
Find a hobby or even many hobbies! its very important to stay busy and also connected to others or you’ll fall into depression. I’ve seen it happen. Volunteer somewhere where you interact with others. I say this as someone who’s been out of work 5 years and took the “bad” path to depression and watched many retires wither do to lack human connection and over all lethargic tendencies
Use or lose it is very real for anything humans do…
So get into exercise, get into FOSS, interact with people!
Outside is pretty cool too.
good ending, took too long maybe
Man so envious of that, I’m just a bit younger and I can’t retire like that.
I will be sailing my job until they fire me. Don’t know what will happen next but maybe I can find something that’s more down to earth with my local community and still brings some joy.
Unfortunately the truth is AI is probably going to get good enough that it won’t matter anymore. I guess I’m just hopeful that it’s gonna build a space elevator or something and we actually get some benefit out of surrendering agency. There are enough open weight models that the millionaires won’t get there tech bro mad max dysutopian fantasy world with them at the top.
It’s quite literally not.
To paraphrase Doctrow, no matter how fast you breed horses, they will never foal a locomotive.
yeah, everyone who have 0 knowledge always is like “IT WILL GET BETTER SOON REPLACE EVERYONE” oh fuck off already, because you know shit doesn’t mean people know shit too
We might one day create AI that is good enough for this but it won’t be anything based on the currently trending transformer-based LLMs
Source: I completed a PhD in Natural Language Processing and transformers 2018-2022 and unfortunately for my own sanity I am still in the space
That’s cool but some guy who read a lot of Harry Potter fan fiction about it says we’re all gonna die. /s in case it’s needed lol.
what’s the p(doom) for me putting my phone in a blender for being reminded about this
I did my master’s thesis on AI feature extraction during the same time period. I’ll second what this person is saying.
Sure, you credentialed people have a certain view, but I will wait till I hear from a social media tech bro, thank you very much.
Yes, I agree. While these highly intelligent people with degrees have their opinion, I would prefer to hear from buttnuggettroll453 about why AI will soon be better than all the humans.
Fair. I have been a Linux hobbyist for decades. Up until being replaced by AI a year or two ago, I worked tech support and tech billing/contract roles for infrastructure and software giants. I have zero interest in perpetuating purportedly legal but sketchy billing schemes, using or selling AI, or enabling any foreign (or local) genocides or surveillance states with my work. I’d rather make less money and have my ethics a little less shattered.
The main reasons I work are to learn new skills and to get health insurance and money. I can learn skills on my own, I’m doing okay on money because my hobbies are mostly free or pay me a little bit. It’s mostly the threat of financial destitution, homelessness, and dying in a gutter because I caught a cold without health insurance that have kept me working full time, even when my freelancing was a big portion of my income. If we can solve the healthcare issue, everything will change for the better. I truly believe that.
If we can solve the healthcare issue, everything will change for the better. I truly believe that.
Exactly the reason the right have been fighting healthcare coverage so hard sor so long; they know that chaining your health insurance to
the anchor around your neckyour job, it makes you less likely to leave.Hell, assuming your company gets bought midyear, you can experience the joys of not having health insurance while you technically do have it! I had a few weeks this year effectively without insurance because the massive corpo fucknuggets that bought my comparatively tiny company weren’t competent enough to have the new insurance company (that they use for themselves) loaded with all of our info, so we got left in the lurch while being told for over a week that “they were loading our data now” (a week into the process) or they “had escalated the problem to the highest management” a full 5 days and a weekend before they started sending out paper letters with the info (that still didn’t fucking work for 2 days).
Congrats on your retirement!, I also just pulled the trigger myself. I think industry managers will need to see AI fail for a few years before they wake the eff up around where to use it. The problem is that AI makes very compelling demos. It lets you fill in the blanks with what looks like an instant, high functioning product. You dont initially see the long tail of mediocrity and imprecision. We are used to just assuming tech products are consistent, endlessly iterable, and user friendly.
It is useful, I’ll give it that. But… we are barely doing code reviews anymore though, which is terrifying. Exec says invest in extra scoping an extra testing, and ignore the software creation part, let AI do its thing and trust it. May work. May not. My replacement will find out, poor bastard. Good luck to them.
man i’m like a couple years behind ya. could you tell me the ballpark of what you’re retiring on so i can be envious :D
I dunno if retiring during a global depression will be a good idea
Yes, cause working during a global depression is going to be so awesome
it is when you have a giant pile of money to live off of and buy stocks on firesale
Take how much you spend in a typical year and multiply by 25. Pre-trump conventional wisdom theorized that you need that much, and you cant count the money you lock into the house you will live in, unless you plan to sell it when you need to and pay rent.
I “retired” (fancy way of saying “was laid off”) from programming seven years ago and I haven’t written a line of code since. I’m happy to have completely missed out on the AI experience, although since I spent the last few years of my career mostly managing a team of offshore developers, I feel like I got close enough. Now I own my own small house and I drive a school bus and I couldn’t be happier. At some point AI will be driving the school buses (so that the kids can still go to school and have AI do all their work for them) but hopefully I will have died a painless death by then.
Oh look, the thing we all knew was gonna happen is happening.
Just follow trumps stock trades. That will talk you all you need to know about where the market is headed.
Can’t wait to see this exact headline another 50 times but none of the companies in question facing any consequences for their actions, profit driven society is so fucking stupid.
The consequence is that they waste money and time. Which actually matters for businesses strapped for money or time. But most of the megacorps are swimming in money and in time. They waste those all the time even without the AI because the upper management accepts kickbacks to contract with the worst (but also the bribiest) contractors. And mid management, and everyone else, put their own personal interests ahead of the company’s. Now that the AI hype is here, they have a new tool to waste time and money with, but nothing has fundamentally changed. Big business is a lumbering inefficient bureaucracy by its nature.
I tried AI-everything (apart from code review of course). But it’s just too hard. Letting the AI do bigger things results in subtle, hard to find, but devastating design fails and errors. It’s fractal. No matter what layer I look at, it’s always sort-of working but also bugged in subtle and sometimes hard-to-fix ways.
So I don’t do that. Instead I use the AI as an assistant while I still do most of the actual work. I downgraded my account too because I never reached the limits for a while.I’m in a similar situation. My workplace has been heavily pushing implanting AI tools into our daily workload, but I’ve struggled to find a more meaningful use beyond a technical search engine: eg. How can I calculate x in the most resource efficient way?
My IDE told me that there is a new version of some library which fixes security bugs. I asked the AI what will break if I update. It actually found out that the new version requires a license key which has to be updated yearly even for the free use case. So I had it refactor the single use of that library to use another library instead. I then polished the refactored code myself a bit.
When I am done with something, I ask the AI what it thinks about the changes. It then tells me where I violated the style guide and sometimes it finds silly bugs I somehow missed. In rare cases it also finds serious stuff. the code definitely never got worse by having the AI look over it. Btw, looking at it doesn’t mean changing it. I had to tell it to save in its memory files that it should only change anything when explicitly asked to.
When I am not sure why something is like it is, I ask the AI. It then comes up with one or more potential explanations and often I then remember what was actually the reasoning if it’s my own code or the code becomes somewhat understandable when it’s written by someone else.
When some behavior looks like it should be impossible, I ask the AI how it’s possible, and it usually tells me the actual reason or gets close enough to make it much easier for me to find it.
When I’m unsure how to implement something, I discuss some options with the AI. It’s reasoning isn’t always sound. But sometimes the internal dialog is just not enough and chatting with AI works surprisingly well for me.
Just treat it like an extremely knowledgeable college with a serious psychedelics addiction. Can’t let it do stuff unattended. But when it isn’t hallucinating, it is pretty capable. Also, it doesn’t care how much you ask it. In general, every easy to explain task with easy to verify results and low damage on failure can be done by AI. But it is often faster to just do something yourself than explain it to the AI and polish the result.
that it should only change anything when explicitly asked to.
Does that work?
Ding ding ding. It’s fucking GREAT for eliminating the menial bullshit like scaffolding, data cleanup, sifting through overly verbose documentation… Anything that requires abstract thought still needs to be done by a human.
It’s weird - competent management wouldn’t require employees to fly helicopters to work without flight training, but many managers somehow think, “Everybody use AI now,” makes sense.
Remember when chatgpt first went viral and everyone said that “prompt engineer will be the new career path”. So, how’s that going?
