The lead time on new fabs is massive like truely massive. We would have to assume this bubble won’t burst for the next decade to justify it.
On the flip side ramping up production is what actually caused the current problem to a degree. The last time there was a massive bubble that caused a huge demand surge for memory. The various companies producing it all ramped up production. Then the bubble popped and 70% of the companies went bankrupt.
Its why the current companies are refusing to ramp production. They refuse to be fucked over by the bubble. And frankly I don’t blame them.
As stupid as it is it’s ALSO good for the consumer. Cause if the bubble goes pop and the few remaining big guys all go belly up. Then we are all collectively fucked.
If you think now is bad the fuck do you think would happen if one one few remaining fabs goes bankrupt and is sold off and split up.
Best case scenario is long term we have a larger number of more flexible smaller fabs. Realistically it just means we have even fewer companies making ram at all in the short term and prices go even higher for possibly years longer then they otherwise would.
So while yeah the ram companies are making money hand over fucking fist. They are also doing what is best for themselves and the customer. Shit just fucking sucks cause reality disagrees with the delusion that’s being imposed on it.
The big three producers refusal to expand will hurt them a lot, chinese producers like cxmt got a great way in and have already started producing dram that works for ddr5 6000mhz.
Honestly, we should probably just have a state owned and ran chip fab company. If the US is serious about security and/or innovation, that’s what needs to happen. There’s no way it’s going to happen though sadly, but that’s what should be done. >
Why state owned, when they can have privately owned and just funnel your tax money right into it, then retire to take up cushy “consultancy” positions on the board?
You cant just “fund a startup trying to make ram”. Chip fabrication is probably the most difficult and capital intensive production process there is. What manufacturing more ram looks like is investing tens of billions of real money (not the you give us stock we let you use our GPU deals the AI companies have been doing) and then waiting 5-10 years before the fab you funded starts to make chips, and hope prices are still high by then.
That’s why the existing manufactures are slow to scale up, they arent sure that the current spike in demand will still be there by the time their scaling up increases production.
Yes, but also cartel behavior.
Those same 3 manufacturers have been found guilty of it in the past, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they were fixing prices again now.
See this video by Gamers Nexus.
Its both things to be perfectly honest. Last Time there was a ram bubble. A bunch of companies all went belly up because they ramped up production too high to meet demand. Got caught left hold in the bag. It’s why this so few companies now and why they can do the cartel nonsense.
And well, yes, they’re very clearly doing cartel nonsense yet again. They also aren’t entirely wrong in their reasoning. They’re just going about it in a really s***** manner.
Cuz if they did ramp up production and then the bubble pops and the left holding the bag and one of them goes belly up then we’re all f***** even more. Prices will then actually legitimately just go up even more. Which would just f*** everyone even more.
History has proven that ramping up production to meet a bubble is a stupid business decision. It also hurts your customer and hurts your profits in the short to medium term.
So you have a logical historical reason. A logical current business reason and illegal cartel nonsense.
There’s just no reason to ramp up production. It just doesn’t make sense on any front. It’s basically purely knee-jerk reaction.
Of all companies, though, Microsoft is one of the few who could easily afford to sink a few billion into starting in-house chip production.
And even if they only ever produce chips for their own products, they’ll still probably come out ahead in the long run, because of all the money they’ll save on not paying inflated prices for others’ chips to use in Microsoft hardware.
That ‘in the long run’ part is the problem, though. Corps can never see beyond the next quarterly earnings report. An investment that will take years to pay off … that’s just out of the question.
Try decades… Chip fabs take like 5-7 years just to get running and then double that to recoup. No company is going to gamble on a possibility 15 year investment for a very obvious bubble.
You have let’s say Samsung who can make money selling a chip as long as the price > $50. And historically the price of the chip has averaged $100.
But the demand is crazy and they can’t keep up and the price of the chip is $500. They are making money hand over fist but let’s say they feel a moral obligation (hahahahaha) to lower the price by increasing capacity.
So they invest a billion dollars to increase capacity. Now that’s a huge cost that reduces their margin on all chips. Between loans and maintenance, now they have to sell a chip for $90 to break even. But that’s fine because they are making $410 per chip instead of $50!
Except now you fix the supply issue and demand falls to normal. You’ve just cut your profit from $50 to $10. You have to sell 5x the volume to make the money you were making!
Except it’s even worse, because now you have all these extra chips you’re building and nowhere to put them. Supply exceeds demand, pushing prices lower so instead of $100, they are selling for $80. Now Samsung loses $10 on every chip and they go bankrupt trying to pay back a billion in loans.
So it’s not really in their interest to build capacity to meet a temporary demand. Unfortunately.
That is not how it works at all. RAM is a necessary part for every compute device, and there is no way to recover any part of selling at a loss once it’s acquired by the final owner. Thus, they will never be sold without a profit margin. This is very different from, for example, the video game consoles market. Once you have the console, you still need games, so, whatever loss the manufacturer is assuming has a chance of being filled by the customer “buying” (renting) games.
Having said that, the rest of your logic is sound. However, I don’t see prices dropping back to what they were before this AI bullshit even if the market is suddenly flooded by triple the offer vs demand. These corporations would certainly manufacture a fictional shortage somehow, makeing people rush-purchase ram for fear of the prices going too high again, and release all the production into the market to maintain the illusion of low offer.
It is an extremely long and complicated process to do so. China has been trying to enter chips manufacturing for decades and are now almost there (they don’t have the capacity to produce the most advanced chips yet, but are still working on it).
However the moment they got a decent DDR4 production going they announced they are going to “phase them out” in favour of DDR5 chips (of which they have not really perfected the process yet) so they can be used for Chinese AI-datacenters.
That still might take 10y because lithography printers aren’t cheap, their location isn’t cheap, and so much more. Once you watch an Intel, TSMC, or Texas Instru… chip factory tour.
Wait, why doesn’t Texas Instrument cash in or did they offshore their production too?
Honestly, no. There is no fast way to spin up fabs for this stuff. A lot of lithography equipment for the top tier stuff is made by 1 supplier, stocking a shitload of fabs with the right gear just isn’t something they can do.
IMHO, the fastest way out of this mess would be for governments to regulate how supply is spilt between consumer and enterprise products.
The “demand” is in the future. It may never be realized. There’s no money in starting a chip fab when there’s only a manufactured shortage. The chip companies aren’t adding capacity because they don’t need it.
Eh … even with the popping of the AI bubble, the long-term future is bright for any new chip manufacturer. The world is only becoming more and more electronic, with more and more gadgets needing advanced chips. When the AI bubble goes boom, demand may temporarily drop, but in the long term demand will rise overall.
Plus it’s not like any of the major companies have been earning consumer appreciation. If a new company started today and offered similar price fora buck less than everyone else I’d buy just for the pleasure of saying I didn’t buy Nvidia
The startup cost for a chip fab is MONSTROUS. Add the fact that the incumbents have already been convicted of being a cartel once (or more?), and it’s going to be a heck of an industry to break into. The incumbents just will drop price
They could start manufacturing ram? Or fund startups trying to make ram?
Seriously is there no way to get out of having only 2-3 chip and memory makers?
The lead time on new fabs is massive like truely massive. We would have to assume this bubble won’t burst for the next decade to justify it.
On the flip side ramping up production is what actually caused the current problem to a degree. The last time there was a massive bubble that caused a huge demand surge for memory. The various companies producing it all ramped up production. Then the bubble popped and 70% of the companies went bankrupt.
Its why the current companies are refusing to ramp production. They refuse to be fucked over by the bubble. And frankly I don’t blame them.
As stupid as it is it’s ALSO good for the consumer. Cause if the bubble goes pop and the few remaining big guys all go belly up. Then we are all collectively fucked.
If you think now is bad the fuck do you think would happen if one one few remaining fabs goes bankrupt and is sold off and split up.
Best case scenario is long term we have a larger number of more flexible smaller fabs. Realistically it just means we have even fewer companies making ram at all in the short term and prices go even higher for possibly years longer then they otherwise would.
So while yeah the ram companies are making money hand over fucking fist. They are also doing what is best for themselves and the customer. Shit just fucking sucks cause reality disagrees with the delusion that’s being imposed on it.
The big three producers refusal to expand will hurt them a lot, chinese producers like cxmt got a great way in and have already started producing dram that works for ddr5 6000mhz.
Honestly, we should probably just have a state owned and ran chip fab company. If the US is serious about security and/or innovation, that’s what needs to happen. There’s no way it’s going to happen though sadly, but that’s what should be done. >
Why state owned, when they can have privately owned and just funnel your tax money right into it, then retire to take up cushy “consultancy” positions on the board?
You cant just “fund a startup trying to make ram”. Chip fabrication is probably the most difficult and capital intensive production process there is. What manufacturing more ram looks like is investing tens of billions of real money (not the you give us stock we let you use our GPU deals the AI companies have been doing) and then waiting 5-10 years before the fab you funded starts to make chips, and hope prices are still high by then.
That’s why the existing manufactures are slow to scale up, they arent sure that the current spike in demand will still be there by the time their scaling up increases production.
Yes, but also cartel behavior. Those same 3 manufacturers have been found guilty of it in the past, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they were fixing prices again now. See this video by Gamers Nexus.
Its both things to be perfectly honest. Last Time there was a ram bubble. A bunch of companies all went belly up because they ramped up production too high to meet demand. Got caught left hold in the bag. It’s why this so few companies now and why they can do the cartel nonsense.
And well, yes, they’re very clearly doing cartel nonsense yet again. They also aren’t entirely wrong in their reasoning. They’re just going about it in a really s***** manner.
Cuz if they did ramp up production and then the bubble pops and the left holding the bag and one of them goes belly up then we’re all f***** even more. Prices will then actually legitimately just go up even more. Which would just f*** everyone even more.
History has proven that ramping up production to meet a bubble is a stupid business decision. It also hurts your customer and hurts your profits in the short to medium term.
So you have a logical historical reason. A logical current business reason and illegal cartel nonsense.
There’s just no reason to ramp up production. It just doesn’t make sense on any front. It’s basically purely knee-jerk reaction.
If only there was something like a chip act that the government could have provided that capital….
Of all companies, though, Microsoft is one of the few who could easily afford to sink a few billion into starting in-house chip production.
And even if they only ever produce chips for their own products, they’ll still probably come out ahead in the long run, because of all the money they’ll save on not paying inflated prices for others’ chips to use in Microsoft hardware.
That ‘in the long run’ part is the problem, though. Corps can never see beyond the next quarterly earnings report. An investment that will take years to pay off … that’s just out of the question.
Try decades… Chip fabs take like 5-7 years just to get running and then double that to recoup. No company is going to gamble on a possibility 15 year investment for a very obvious bubble.
They’re going to start up an entire RAM company to fill a temporary shortage?
Yes, then they’ll be shortage resistant
It can’t really work the way to want it to.
You have let’s say Samsung who can make money selling a chip as long as the price > $50. And historically the price of the chip has averaged $100.
But the demand is crazy and they can’t keep up and the price of the chip is $500. They are making money hand over fist but let’s say they feel a moral obligation (hahahahaha) to lower the price by increasing capacity.
So they invest a billion dollars to increase capacity. Now that’s a huge cost that reduces their margin on all chips. Between loans and maintenance, now they have to sell a chip for $90 to break even. But that’s fine because they are making $410 per chip instead of $50!
Except now you fix the supply issue and demand falls to normal. You’ve just cut your profit from $50 to $10. You have to sell 5x the volume to make the money you were making!
Except it’s even worse, because now you have all these extra chips you’re building and nowhere to put them. Supply exceeds demand, pushing prices lower so instead of $100, they are selling for $80. Now Samsung loses $10 on every chip and they go bankrupt trying to pay back a billion in loans.
So it’s not really in their interest to build capacity to meet a temporary demand. Unfortunately.
That is not how it works at all. RAM is a necessary part for every compute device, and there is no way to recover any part of selling at a loss once it’s acquired by the final owner. Thus, they will never be sold without a profit margin. This is very different from, for example, the video game consoles market. Once you have the console, you still need games, so, whatever loss the manufacturer is assuming has a chance of being filled by the customer “buying” (renting) games.
Having said that, the rest of your logic is sound. However, I don’t see prices dropping back to what they were before this AI bullshit even if the market is suddenly flooded by triple the offer vs demand. These corporations would certainly manufacture a fictional shortage somehow, makeing people rush-purchase ram for fear of the prices going too high again, and release all the production into the market to maintain the illusion of low offer.
There were loads of ram companies in the eighties, so many that when meager times came, half went bankrupt.
RAM making is a brutal market. It’s very different to chip making, it’s “just” billions of capacitors.
You don’t need to be “shortage resistant” when there’s no shortage.
It is an extremely long and complicated process to do so. China has been trying to enter chips manufacturing for decades and are now almost there (they don’t have the capacity to produce the most advanced chips yet, but are still working on it).
However the moment they got a decent DDR4 production going they announced they are going to “phase them out” in favour of DDR5 chips (of which they have not really perfected the process yet) so they can be used for Chinese AI-datacenters.
That still might take 10y because lithography printers aren’t cheap, their location isn’t cheap, and so much more. Once you watch an Intel, TSMC, or Texas Instru… chip factory tour.
Wait, why doesn’t Texas Instrument cash in or did they offshore their production too?
Fun fact…the chip maker and the calculator company are completely seperate. Don’t really know why it’s fun but well it is a fact.
They’re already selling silicone designed twenty years ago at absurd markup, so Texas Instruments has no need to jeopardize that with the AI fad.
Honestly, no. There is no fast way to spin up fabs for this stuff. A lot of lithography equipment for the top tier stuff is made by 1 supplier, stocking a shitload of fabs with the right gear just isn’t something they can do.
IMHO, the fastest way out of this mess would be for governments to regulate how supply is spilt between consumer and enterprise products.
So maybe invest in that and become another top-tier supplier of lithography equipment?
That’s about as hard to do as making the chips in the first place… So that also would take 10+ years of r&d and build up.
There’s a reason it’s taken China literally decades to catch up with home grown alteratives and they still aren’t entirely there.
Or just build hardware that’s easier to make
I would gladly go back to 2012-era hardware if it meant I could afford it and people maintained software for it
But you can!
Just buy up used stuff, computers nowadays are very resilient.
I have a 6 gen intel Linux, works like a charm., and a 8 gen for “gaming n stuff” (windoze), I even got my hands on a recent laptop for 100€…
No need to buy that latest stuff, IMO.
The “demand” is in the future. It may never be realized. There’s no money in starting a chip fab when there’s only a manufactured shortage. The chip companies aren’t adding capacity because they don’t need it.
Eh … even with the popping of the AI bubble, the long-term future is bright for any new chip manufacturer. The world is only becoming more and more electronic, with more and more gadgets needing advanced chips. When the AI bubble goes boom, demand may temporarily drop, but in the long term demand will rise overall.
Plus it’s not like any of the major companies have been earning consumer appreciation. If a new company started today and offered similar price fora buck less than everyone else I’d buy just for the pleasure of saying I didn’t buy Nvidia
The startup cost for a chip fab is MONSTROUS. Add the fact that the incumbents have already been convicted of being a cartel once (or more?), and it’s going to be a heck of an industry to break into. The incumbents just will drop price
The problem is it doesn’t solve the core issue. What’s to stop an AI data center buying up all the startup’s stock and future stock also.
If you’re the one funding the startup you can just reject that