I’m still invested in some US stocks, but I’m switching my US market exposure to an index fund that weights by actual sales, revenue, and other objective factors, rather than market cap. Companies don’t even get into the index unless they turn a profit first.
“Very soon” that’s what’s been said for years now. I too think this isn’t sustainable, but it sure feels like it’ll keep rolling for a number of years.
It’s the P/E ratio (the ration between the stock Price of a company and it’s Earnings) of the Nasdaq vs the Price.
Notice how the Nasdaq price has tracked the P/E, with since at least 2020 the stock prices not increasing because company earnings are going up but rather just from increased speculation hence the rise in the ratio of stock Prices to Earnings.
The P/E (in other words, the company stock prices relative to the actual money a company makes) is now about twice as much as back in 2020.
a bubble is a great place to make huge gains …… as long as you get out in time
usually a few companies survive the bubble pop. Their stock price baby also crashes but then recovers to “normal” valuation
I sit out bubbles because I recognize them but know I never know how to get out in time. But I do know some who succeed in riding the wave while still coming out the other side
Is it because for every american their only choice to get any retirement or any interest on savings is to put it into stocks? Followed by massive speculation that maybe (I dont know this part) is driven by machine code that not only follows trends but creates them by thinking if everyone is investing and line goes up, maybe this is where the money should go, which reaffirms the algorithm. Until it doesn’t.
Surely these two things are a factor. That and companies continually laying people off, or cutting costs, or selling data which give the illusion of making money when really it’s just juggling the books and has no long term future.
The main issue as usual is US hegemony (or what’s left of it) has a way of fucking up the rest of the world. When that bubble pops it’s going to cause a whole bunch of industries trouble.
I went 30% into international funds after the first recovery from Donald’s tariffs in spring 2025, when it became abundantly clear that our former trading partners were all hammering out new trade agreements. (Which take 1.5 - 2 years to take effect, but eventually they will and it’ll affect the US adversely.)
Been meaning to rebalance into money markets and bonds with how crazy this year’s been. This just makes me want to do that faster.
What you’re looking at returns on US stocks in Indian Rupees. So the sharp rise is US stocks going high + Indian Rupee deprecating against USD so earlier investments providing higher returns.
We launched attacks on Iran to distract from the Epstein files, leading to the closure of the strait of Hormuz and dwindling oil reserves around the world. It was only like 3 months ago, I’m surprised you didn’t hear about this
I’ve already withdrawn money I had invested in US.
You can’t convince me this isn’t bubble:
Yup I moved mostly out of usd, no stocks listed in the US, no US Treasuries.
I see either default or massive inflation or both in the cards for the US very soon.
I’m still invested in some US stocks, but I’m switching my US market exposure to an index fund that weights by actual sales, revenue, and other objective factors, rather than market cap. Companies don’t even get into the index unless they turn a profit first.
Which index is that?
“Very soon” that’s what’s been said for years now. I too think this isn’t sustainable, but it sure feels like it’ll keep rolling for a number of years.
“markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent.”
Yup I’m definitely foregoing upside but I don’t want to be stressing about trying to find the best time to exit every day.
Here’s an even more interesting one:
It’s the P/E ratio (the ration between the stock Price of a company and it’s Earnings) of the Nasdaq vs the Price.
Notice how the Nasdaq price has tracked the P/E, with since at least 2020 the stock prices not increasing because company earnings are going up but rather just from increased speculation hence the rise in the ratio of stock Prices to Earnings.
The P/E (in other words, the company stock prices relative to the actual money a company makes) is now about twice as much as back in 2020.
It is a bubble, but ……
I sit out bubbles because I recognize them but know I never know how to get out in time. But I do know some who succeed in riding the wave while still coming out the other side
Yup. Highest it’s ever been and there’s no explanation as to why. Not a sensible one anyway, given most are in the shit.
Is it because for every american their only choice to get any retirement or any interest on savings is to put it into stocks? Followed by massive speculation that maybe (I dont know this part) is driven by machine code that not only follows trends but creates them by thinking if everyone is investing and line goes up, maybe this is where the money should go, which reaffirms the algorithm. Until it doesn’t.
Surely these two things are a factor. That and companies continually laying people off, or cutting costs, or selling data which give the illusion of making money when really it’s just juggling the books and has no long term future.
The main issue as usual is US hegemony (or what’s left of it) has a way of fucking up the rest of the world. When that bubble pops it’s going to cause a whole bunch of industries trouble.
Hence why there is frantic effort in decoupling from USA and connecting with alternative markets in the rest of the world.
Yeah fucking finally too!
Every fucking american crisis bleeds into our countries every goddamn time, but they? Let’s do worse next time!! No regulation!! War!!
Aaaahrg.
/Rant off
I went 30% into international funds after the first recovery from Donald’s tariffs in spring 2025, when it became abundantly clear that our former trading partners were all hammering out new trade agreements. (Which take 1.5 - 2 years to take effect, but eventually they will and it’ll affect the US adversely.)
Been meaning to rebalance into money markets and bonds with how crazy this year’s been. This just makes me want to do that faster.
Tf happened in Spring 26?
What you’re looking at returns on US stocks in Indian Rupees. So the sharp rise is US stocks going high + Indian Rupee deprecating against USD so earlier investments providing higher returns.
Motilal Oswal is a fund house:
https://www.motilaloswalmf.com/mutual-funds/motilal-oswal-nasdaq-100-fund-of-fund
We launched attacks on Iran to distract from the Epstein files, leading to the closure of the strait of Hormuz and dwindling oil reserves around the world. It was only like 3 months ago, I’m surprised you didn’t hear about this
Of course I heard. Last I checked war and oil shortages weren’t good for the economy