Elon musk had SpaceX buy XAi which bought Twitter all for increasingly more money from himself. The valuation is based on that. Somehow.
Apparently they claim their TAM is $28T because identifying trillion dollar businesses is their core “repeatable business model”. None of the companies folded into SpaceX now are trillion dollar companies. How the argument that the core business is making trillion dollar companies, despite not making any trillion dollar companies, makes any sense I do not know.
Also uhh… don’t look at their declining real revenue, or that they just bought $1B of depreciating assets from Tesla like $138M of cyber trucks. That definitely was not because they weren’t selling.
Fire all the regulators, find some shit to pump, get all your buddies in, have the NASDAQ make special rules for you, then everyone who bought in private sells on open when the index funds have to buy in. Many pensions may be legally forced to buy this shit to satisfy regulations.
It’s fucked. Well over 100x revenue multiples at IPO. They just filled their S1.
The market makers are turning index funds into 2008’s CDOs.
Yeah, I’ve been a fan of index investing for a while, but have become very sceptical of the sp500, nasdaq 100, etc. as valuations have become more concentrated.
When so few assets make up such a large portion of the index I think it loses its diversification advantages.
They are going to enshittify so hard trying to get their money back… it’s too bad, too. I use ChatGPT a fair bit for various things. But eras end and this could herald the end of it being useful to me. At some point I was always just going to set up my own local AI on a server here at home. Hopefully hardware prices can recover a bit before I feel compelled to move on from ChatGPT.
I saw an article talking about how prices for AI are cheap as hell right now cuz they’re trying to get people used to not thinking (or programing) for themselves. Then when people are dependent on it they’re planning on jacking the price up.
It does seem like someone wants their investments back and pass on the money black hole over to the public.
I’d be surprised if they can continue their business as is after an IPO.
For amateur investors, the question to always ask is why does a company with massive private investments need to go public?
SpaceX is going public at $2 Trillion dollars on like $12b of revenue.
They’re trying to foist the bag on to index funds.
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My retirement pension fund has $0 in anything AI or Musk.
How does that even happen? They just decide what their valuation is??
Yes.
Elon musk had SpaceX buy XAi which bought Twitter all for increasingly more money from himself. The valuation is based on that. Somehow.
Apparently they claim their TAM is $28T because identifying trillion dollar businesses is their core “repeatable business model”. None of the companies folded into SpaceX now are trillion dollar companies. How the argument that the core business is making trillion dollar companies, despite not making any trillion dollar companies, makes any sense I do not know.
Also uhh… don’t look at their declining real revenue, or that they just bought $1B of depreciating assets from Tesla like $138M of cyber trucks. That definitely was not because they weren’t selling.
Edit: Here’s a video on this so you all can see exactly how shitty this deal is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X6YzlY_8tM
Yes I believe the TAM or value or whatever of a single company is 12% of all wealth in the U.S. That makes sense.
I have to be honest, I don’t know how any investor read their S1 and still wants to put money in this thing.
I mean, I know Carlin said it’s a big club and you’re not in it, but fuck. They’re all in on it.
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“We want to be a trillion dolar company because we want to becom3 a trillion dolar company!”
yes. see also: capitalism
How can it be possible?
How in the everloving fuck can that happen?
How are the streets not running with blood?
waves hands
Corruption.
Fire all the regulators, find some shit to pump, get all your buddies in, have the NASDAQ make special rules for you, then everyone who bought in private sells on open when the index funds have to buy in. Many pensions may be legally forced to buy this shit to satisfy regulations.
It’s fucked. Well over 100x revenue multiples at IPO. They just filled their S1.
The market makers are turning index funds into 2008’s CDOs.
Which is insane. CDOs were crazy, but fucking index funds is batshit insane levels of evil. Not just corruption, but all out treason.
Yeah, I’ve been a fan of index investing for a while, but have become very sceptical of the sp500, nasdaq 100, etc. as valuations have become more concentrated.
When so few assets make up such a large portion of the index I think it loses its diversification advantages.
This is why I use international index funds primarily. Small cap is also a solid hedge
I think the US indexes still make up 15% of my portfolio.
AI is making stocks go up, so your saving can go bye bye
They are going to enshittify so hard trying to get their money back… it’s too bad, too. I use ChatGPT a fair bit for various things. But eras end and this could herald the end of it being useful to me. At some point I was always just going to set up my own local AI on a server here at home. Hopefully hardware prices can recover a bit before I feel compelled to move on from ChatGPT.
I saw an article talking about how prices for AI are cheap as hell right now cuz they’re trying to get people used to not thinking (or programing) for themselves. Then when people are dependent on it they’re planning on jacking the price up.
The prices are already going up, look at anthropic’s price hikes, or the GitHub copilot ones. You’re right it is just the start though.
Axios just announced that AI is now more expensive than hiring a human.
That’s only partially true.
The other half is that “almost as good” AI like GLM’s coder plan, Kimi, and dozens of other providers are dirt cheap. And getting cheaper, fast.