Even if I agreed that such export controls were of significant strategic importance, I don’t think it’s worth applying extreme pressure to our allies to accomplish it. The notion that China can’t innovate becomes less true by the year.
The AI build out is an engineering disaster. China will catch up irrespective of what controls we apply to inhibit them. If we can’t out-compete them, then we lose.
It would probably me much easier to out-compete them if we weren’t actively destroying the greatest network of alliances in human history. We’re fucking morons.
The US keeps forgetting that if they disrupt ASML they also would not get their machines. Keep shooting yourself in the foot guys.
Fuck the United Pedo States of Shamerica
Some company in China just duplicated ASMLs shtick, didn’t they ?
China is advanced enough they can simply develop their own tech when forced to. Not always the cheaper or fastest option but it is a realistic one for most ideas.
Yes and no. It’ll still take many years to get to the same level. ASML has a huge head start
Like the headstart Germany had in solar, high speed rail, and automotive?
Those aren’t nearly as advanced as these high end lithography machines. A more apt comparison is a space race. But you’re right, it doesn’t last forever
This feels again a bit dismissive. My whole life I have heard “it is okay, China is years away from doing any catch up, unlikely anything happens” and then China proceeds to catch up every. Single. Time.
if China has replicated the technology, then that is fucked for ASML and any headstart they have will not feel like one in 5 years when suddenly China speeds past with cheaper and better tech.
I hope ASML won’t just sit idle and will instead double the effort into making sure the lead they have stays that way.
most recent one I can remember was “Chinese cars are years away from quality and safe cars of western countries who have a massive headstart” recently also been hearing that about memory production.
I think you’re equally dismissive of the extreme complexity of these machines.
It’s built upon an enormously complicated and precise arrangement of processes and infrastructure that took them decades to iterate towards. Even if you knew a shortcut to the answer and had infinite resources to throw at it, sorting out all the kinks is a monumental effort that can’t be fixed within a few years by throwing more heads and hands at it.
I can’t overstate how complex these machines are. They are arguably one of the most advanced things mankind has ever built.
I get that, nobody should get complacent. I’m from Eindhoven and I know many people at ASML. They are not complacent. They knew this day would come. They’re racing for the next big thing even after EUV, of course they are, but nothing lasts forever. The head start is real, China can make a couple of these machines where ASML builds 60 per year. And these machines don’t have anywhere near the chip production capacity of ASML’s
Maybe also release the tuning and tricks after? They are socialistic… and it would also hurt US.
If so, maybe asml should team up with China to produce these machines. Completely cut out the hypocrites in the US out of the picture.
It’s time for Europe to decide if we want to be a US puppet state or independent.
As an European, I very much prefer not giving Russia’s ally important technology.
As an European, I very much prefer that we apply to those who support Israel the same standards we do for those who support Russia.
So I’m absolutelly fine that we do not give BOTH Israel’s and Russia’s allies important technology.
Doing otherwise would show our “European values” to in practice be nothing more than sociopathic hypocrisy.
Of course, then ASML wouldn’t be able to sell its machines to America and at least half of Europe as well as quite number of other countries.
We should apply the same punishment to countries that directly threaten and invade Europe versus countries that aren’t even close to Europe and are no threat? Do you want EU to become the next world police like US and get involved into all global conflicts? Maybe we should learn a thing or two from US and stay the fuck away from middle east.
Ah, I see, you’re driven by “what’s in it for me”, not by principles.
Well, by that logic, I as an EU citizen shouldn’t give a shit, since Russia hasn’t attacked the EU (at most they should get a proportional talkie-talkie response when they engage in talkie-talkie “aggression”) and meanwhile it’s more profitable for the EU to engage with China than it is to cut them of, and as for the rest of Europe (most notably Ukraine), well screw them same as the “screw Palestinians” of your position.
Even better, as a Portuguese and thus as far from Russia as possible whilst still being in Europe, by your “self interest” motivation I shouldn’t give a shit about Russia even if they invaded Eastern European EU countries.
Of course, me being a person of principles, I support Palestine against the Israeli Genocide same as I support Ukraine against Russia aggression (no need to feel personally endangered by either aggressor) and what I think the EU should do in the international plane follows from that, but that’s not at all your reason to wanting that Europe behaves towards China in a certain way.
China is not a Russian ally though. China is an opportunistic state. They make agreements and trade with anyone who they think will further their goals. Thus they trade with Russia because by doing so they gain influence in a diminishing state that controls a lot of resources (Russia’s far east is increasingly becoming Chinese by population and companies for a reason)
China doesn’t make friends, they make deals with anyone and everyone as long as they think it is positive for China.
I thought he was talking about the US😂
Fair, but shouldn’t the Netherlands or EU decide that, not the United States?
It’s pointless. They’ll just produce domestically whatever you refuse to sell them. And then ASML will lose its monopoly by having to compete with Chinese firms.
So your logic is “Give China everything they ask otherwise they will make their own and outcompete you”?
You know, that sounds awfully close to what Russians constantly say, but replace make with take
It’s not my logic, it’s what’s currently happening after the US imposed bans of certain technologies on China
You can’t do that. There is a reason only one company in the entire world can do it. It’s because it’s really hard to do and it is an iterative technology.
That reason is nobody has ever dumped a shitload of cash into it because it was cheaper to just buy from the company that already figured it out.
Well, now China has no other option other than trying to produce it.
Chinese firms are already trying to replicate it. Giving them one to study may just accelerate the process.
They’ve already tried that - they bought one, pulled it apart to see how it worked and couldn’t put it together again. There’s a Veritasium video about it.
It’s time to play the music It’s time to light the lights It’s time to meet the Muppets on the Muppet Show tonight
Does China not have its own women who whisper while rustling paper?
Maybe EU should ban ASML from selling to USA?
And make a law specifically to allow ASML to sell to China.
Unfortunately many politicians in Europe are doing as USA ask. But the reality is that USA depend more on EU than the other way around. So we should not let USA decide anything, at a minimum they should consult EU first! Brats.
Half the US soft power comes from EU and allies supporting USA. Without us, USA would never have become the global leader they have been for 7 decades.
We allowed that because USA helped us in WW2, and it worked pretty well for half a century.
But unfortunately USA has torn up all agreements and are walking away from their responsibilities, and work against their allies.
We don’t owe USA anything anymore, maybe Americans should wake up and realize that.Why do you want them to sell to China so desperately? It has done nothing but irreversible damage to countries to sell key industries to China. Look at Germany‘s history of solar power and industry robots that China bought and now mass produces instead. Germany could‘ve been a key player in this if the industry and politics played their cards right.
I don’t know what propaganda you are watching? Is it Fox News?
China is fucking 1.4 Billion people, they have invested heavily in infrastructure, education and research for 50 years, while we in Europe and USA have invested only about a third in those areas.
Of course they are catching up. Just like Japan did, Just like South Korea did. AND just like USA did stealing technology from Europe.
China is now among the world leaders in 8 out of 10 key industries. And very obviously, China is working on their own technology to replace ASML even harder now than they did a few years ago, exactly because USA has demanded we sanction the technology to slow them down on AI.
Well guess what. USA will lose the AI race to China so badly, that most probably ALL the big American AI companies will probably go bankrupt. Because they are driven by a gold rush craze, investing way more than the economy can justify. While in China they are pragmatically working towards using cheaper AI solutions to solve actual practical problems.I want to trade with China because they are a WAY WAY more reliable trading partner than USA is.
The article says ASML is dependent on US suppliers. Cutting off sales to the US would probably backfire.
ASML is also dependent on American suppliers for its own production. In the past, American threats to disrupt the company’s supply chain have successfully convinced the Dutch government to further restrict ASML’s exports.
I bet we can get those parts from China if we make an agreement with them.
A large portion of this business was American, just in case you didn’t know.
No it’s not, ASML is Dutch and built on Dutch traditions for lithography through more than a century.
Just because a few Americans like Intel have stock in ASML doesn’t make it American.This is like how Americans think they’re from other places. I’m Italian! Declares a fifth generation American who speaks no Italian and has never left New Jersey
Selling euv to China will let them reverse engineer it and put a state sponsored competitor on the market within 5 years.
Frankly if Europe really meant business they’d put a heavy export tariff on it, so the chip companies have to produce in Europe.
Everybody can reverse engineer it, with that mindset nobody could ever sell anything.
Nope, asml machines are of such complexity that no sane country/company would try to reverse engineer it.
But China isn’t driven by conventional economics nor honest trade. They want everyone else to become dependent on them as a way to get power and soft colonise others.
The newly developed dependence on US gas is a problem.
Europeans: We are not vassal states.
Also Europeans:
At this stage, it’s chosing between the old global power that you know will die soon but is still strong enough to hurt you, the most likely new global power that’s rising fast, or putting in enough me money, effort and discomfort into becoming an independent power and explain that to a population that likes to vote for more purchasing power and pensions, not less.
That’s actually an excellent summary of the whole situation.
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