The bond market’s assessment also jibes with SpaceX’s stock. It’s a profitless, non-dividend-paying, one-person-controlled, empire-building project trading at more than 100 times sales, about 30 times the valuation of the S&P 500 Index. That’s the very definition of a junk stock.
Original link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-02/spacex-is-junk-that-s-what-the-bond-market-says
Nonsense, it’s the stepping stone to our Space Elevator, Mars colonizing, asteroid mining, multi-planet galactic human empire! 4 reelz yo, we have AI supercomputers on a chip now, so obviously now that processing information is cracked, physics melts away!!!
And yet they were given the IPO, so now it’s the public’s problem…
Well the public can just not buy the shares. The whole point of the gift was to sell the shares at inflated values right at the beginning. It doesn’t really matter what happens after that.
I suppose a competent government would launch an investigation into misrepresentation, as I’m pretty sure offering an IPO that’s completely odd to the actual value is a crime, but obviously with a kind administration it’s virtually impossible to commit a crime if you’re rich enough.
Most members of the public don’t have any control over what the managers of their retirement accounts choose to invest in.
Beyond that, I’m pretty sure an IPO comes with an obligation for some index funds to invest in it.
It really wasn’t that hard to see the SpaceX ipo was mostly a scam. And yet there are post after post of people losing their entire fortune, house, future after investing in this sow. Just blinding stupidity to invest in any company run by a ketamine addict who should be in prison over that DOGE bullshit.
I know a guy who bought in to it. I asked him recently how thats going for him. He is underwater and bag holding… the hype for many retail investors was real. Glad I didnt jump in.
It’s at $162 right now. Above where it IPO’d at. How are people losing their fortunes? I’m not defending spaceX or Elon (fuck that guy). But how are people losing a fortune exactly?
I know it’s a scam but honestly most of the market feels that way right now anyway.
Day 1: “Let’s see how this goes.”
Day 2: “It’s up 20%? I can’t miss out on this gravy train!”
After drop: “It’ll go back up for sure.”
I don’t know how fast it was before it peaked, but not everybody bought right away. Or people added more money after they saw it going up.
Specifically Elon Musk is an irresponsible ketamine addict. Most CEOs just stick to a cocaine addiction which leaves them moderately competent.
The worst part is they managed to convince a few indexes to add it within weeks rather than the way things work for everyone else. That means all us IRA/401k holders will be forced to own this stock indirectly if we have funds/ETFs that track them, and suffer the losses directly.
S&P didn’t take the bait and won’t put it in until next year, but I think it’s going on NASDAQ in a few weeks, as well as a few others.
The stock market. Running the world’s economy on hunches and gut feelings and insider manipulations. It’s time for that shit to go. Does anyone even need ticker-tape anymore?
Nobody cares about the bond market, bonds are boring! We’re all about the exciting stock market where fundamentals don’t matter. Make sure to always buy the dip.
I bought 31 bucks worth so I really have zero skin in the game. But he’s shooting for mars and will have to settle for LEO…
I read somewhere that, if reusable rockets were all ok today, spacex needs some 450 launched just to get back to zero compared to Ariane 6 because of the massive costs.
So yeah “reusable” (I would like to know how reusable they actually are/how much they cost to reuse) is great and all but not yet economically viable it seems.
I work in the aerospace industry, mainly to satellites these days but I’ve worked in launch in the past and have plenty of friends who have as well.
That 450 figure is probably all of Falcon 9s development which has gone through several design iteration cycles. Industry rumors point to a new Falcon 9 booster being around $50 to build and a million or two to refurbish on average. The re-use is saving them a significant amount, but the upfront design cost was just so stupid high.
It’s also worth noting that Starlink supposedly launches at near cost meaning little profit for each of those, but then SpaceX turns around and prices Falcon 9 close to Atlas V for government contracts (90-150m total price so probably 60m profit) and gouges people on Transporter (they’re almost certainly pulling in 150-200m on each of those)
It’s honestly not the rocket business that is the problem. Yeah, it’s risky, but it’s actually ambitious and starlink makes money. So, they have a money making product that could actually fund development of a real reusable rocket.
The actual problem is the AI money pit they slapped on to the side. The amount of money XAI spends is so insane it’s like 80% of the whole capex. Which most people dont realize because it’s still called spacex, but in reality the whole space business has become the side project for an AI company burning money at an unprecedented rate.
But but … you can hear people cheering maniacally every time one of their rockets comes back to land! It must be a legit company.
Falcon 9/Heavy has already shown that reusability is feasable. Their rocket business is not making money because of the development costs if Starship. But Starship is also incredibly ambitious compared to other rocketry programs
Once again, the IPO ($135/share or $2.1 Trillion) was based on the success of some long term goals like space-based data centers and a Mars colony of one million permanent residents.
This is from the same guy who promised a fleet of Tesla robotaxis by 2025.
Space experts have since pointed out that the vacuum of space does not sink heat.
Some of the assets thrown into the SpaceX valuation include xAI (which is falling behind OpenAI and Anthropic) and Starlink (which is suffering from congestion problems already and cannot be scaled up).
So this is not unexpected.
I still want to know how having anyone on mars was supposed to be profitable.
Unless a government is paying you to run a private prison there.
To me it is unexpected in the sense that the market has been responding positive to all previous recent fantasies …
Bit sadly it is still extremly overvalued
To clarify, the problem with starlink is that the investment is mostly done (they have the projected number of sats in orbit, give or take a couple thousands) so there is no rational reason for them to raise billions in cash.
In a rational world it would now have to prove itself on its own dime.
Space experts have since pointed out that the vacuum of space does not sink heat.
I’m merely a casual Elite: Dangerous player and I could have told him that.
He’s a genius btw
Now that Elon became a cartoon villain He lost the good will of the people supporting His “Meh” ideas
None were even his ideas in the first place, he just bought the companies using daddies apartheid diamonds from his diamond mine and pretends that he is Tony Stark.
The only addition he has made to any of the companies he has bought has been to try and call them all some variation of ‘X’.
Yeah its insane anyone would touch it with a ten foot pole given the rigged share system.
I feel like I’m way ahead of the market.
(If only I knew how to turn that wisdom into money)
Alas, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
The one you hear a lot is buying physical precious metals. But keeping that stuff at home is kinda risky and renting a vault isn’t free either.
There are certificates that are fully backed by physical metals, so it is easy to trade them. I even have some (but going to sell soon).
You want it at home. The real value in your of gold is when society collapses it still is a nice metal and so has value. Iron would work to but your house isn’t big enough for your life savings in iron.
I don’t think society will collapse and lacking that scenario gold isn’t a better investment.
Gold is money. Central banks are the biggest buyers, and that’s not as a hedge if society collapses. It’s an escape hedge from money printing and an universal medium of exchange
You want it at home.
Well, I don’t.
I don’t think society will collapse and lacking that scenario gold isn’t a better investment.
I don’t think that either. I buy it when I think it’s value will rise.
I’m convinced that to win in today’s market, you really can’t think deeply about anything.
Hm. Maybe you can’t. How does that help me?
See, you’re still thinking when you ask questions
Why? I am always thinking. All the time, no matter what. So?
Put options are a thing.
But best to stay out of stocks gambling unless you have money to lose.
Or short ETFs
“The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
indeed
Another article discussing this without mincing words:
“Equity investors are one thing, but bond guys are the grown-ups in the room,” Beauchamp told CNBC via email. “SpaceX might find it has its work cut out for it, but I suspect the market can absorb the issuance overall.”
I’m taking that to mean that SpaceX might have a bit of a valuation change as investors decide what they’ll pay to be a part of this grand adventure in creative accounting.
Man, remember when the only company that did creative accounting was Enron?
Paywall
The Bond market is even more junk. SpaceX is doing at least something, while the bond market is just moving money from one pocket to another without producing anything at all.
Thanks for the insight Elon.
Thats like saying water isn’t useful because it can’t pick up a hammer.
The bond market provides the liquidity to allow companies to take on debt in order to fund their operations, matching it to buyers willing to lend out the money. It is the thing that enables companies to produce anything to begin with. And It is not only vital to the private sector, but is the primary method for how the us government funds its budget.
SpaceX wouldn’t exist without the bond market, because the entire company is built on government handouts (designed to outsource everything to private companies for the benefit of the wealthy capital owning class) which were funded through government issued bonds that raised the capital to give to spacex for contracts.
Facefuckingpalm. Ok, whatever.
Ew, knowledge! Get it off me!
^ this is you
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