GPU prices

Outside of maybe integrated GPUs, I doubt it, because they need their own memory and are constrained by the same bottleneck — DRAM.

Or at least CPU prices?

I’ve read one article arguing that CPU prices will likely drop during the RAM shortage.

I don’t know if that’s actually true — I think that depends very much on the ability of CPU manufacturers to economically scale down their production to match demand, and I don’t know to what degree that is possible. If they need to commit to a given amount of production in advance, then yeah, probably.

Go back a couple years, and DRAM manufacturers — who are currently making a ton of money due to the massive surge in demand from AI — were losing a ton of money, because they couldn’t inexpensively rapidly scale production up and down to match demand. I don’t know what the economics are like for CPUs.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fear-dram-glut-stifling-micron-155958125.html

November 5, 2018

To be clear, the oversupply concerns that have plagued Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) shares for weeks now are completely valid. Micron stock has fallen as much as 40% just since June on this deteriorating dynamic.

In short, the world doesn’t need as many memory chips as Micron and rivals like Samsung (OTCMKTS:SSNLF) and SK Hynix are collectively making. The glut is forcing the price of DRAM (dynamic random access memory) modules so low that it’s increasingly tougher to make a buck in the business.

We had a glut of DRAM as late as early this year:

https://evertiq.com/news/56996

Weak Demand and Inventory Backlogs

Both the DRAM and the NAND markets are still in a state of oversupply, with excess inventory leading to significant price declines through Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. This is driven by multiple factors such as weak consumer demand.

Memory manufacturers ramped up production during previous periods of strong demand, but the market failed to meet these forecasts. This has resulted in inventory backlogs that now weigh on prices.

GPUs also need memory. So they aren’t escaping this from a consumer POV. Not to mention how production capacity is still being sucked up data centres, but now for AI.