This seems about right. Progress was originally supposed to be 5-10 years. I’m not too sure on how effective these prototypes are. My guess is that their progress of EUV sources is quite far now, but that they’ll still need to have greater progress in regards to domestically created collector & debris mitigation systems, projection optics, mask blanks and other things.
Edit Addendum: Note, article agrees with the timeline of 5 years behind for China. Since their EUV source(presumably) works differently from ASML’s LPP EUV(many think China is going LDP route for EUV source), research may still go up to 10 years, as they will likely need to account for this when researching the other components in a full scanner. Alot of significant modifications or straight up new shit will have to be made. And even then, it’ll need to be commerically viable to compete with the West.
If Taiwan gets invaded they’ll just blow their chip fabs, they’ve said as much multiple times and presumably have a plan in place to do it at a moment’s notice. If that’s what China is after I don’t know that an invasion is going to work even if they succeed. It could deny future chip production to other countries though.
I mean, it kinda still does, but even if they did eventually invade, it wouldn’t necessarily make China the only game in town. There are already other fabrication plants going up around the globe, an invasion would definitely accelerate their development.
Arizona has chip fabs coming on line, (damn Joe Biden!) but construction of a fab and actually making chips at scale are two very different challenges.
China seems to be closest though, if they reach viable modern CPUs first…
But realistically, I think China made a deal with the West to hold off on Taiwan until we have at least one modern chip fab working in the US and Europe
The US has said they will blow them up “for them”. TSMC is supportive of US puppetted militarist fascism in Taiwan, but has backfired a bit from Trump. Tarriffs on Taiwan, and more restrictions on Chinese operations. TSMC definitely wants to avoid war even if it likes politicians that hype up weapons gifts, but also independently subsidizes it.
War is going to depend on US dictated decoupling, that black market can’t get around. The fascists will have a hard time trusting US backing for the island, as Trump has been softer on China than Taiwan so far this year.
This seems about right. Progress was originally supposed to be 5-10 years. I’m not too sure on how effective these prototypes are. My guess is that their progress of EUV sources is quite far now, but that they’ll still need to have greater progress in regards to domestically created collector & debris mitigation systems, projection optics, mask blanks and other things.
Edit Addendum: Note, article agrees with the timeline of 5 years behind for China. Since their EUV source(presumably) works differently from ASML’s LPP EUV(many think China is going LDP route for EUV source), research may still go up to 10 years, as they will likely need to account for this when researching the other components in a full scanner. Alot of significant modifications or straight up new shit will have to be made. And even then, it’ll need to be commerically viable to compete with the West.
Well, unless they invaded Taiwan…
If Taiwan gets invaded they’ll just blow their chip fabs, they’ve said as much multiple times and presumably have a plan in place to do it at a moment’s notice. If that’s what China is after I don’t know that an invasion is going to work even if they succeed. It could deny future chip production to other countries though.
Yeah, that’s what I mean
Doesn’t matter if China’s chips are economically viable if they’re the only ones making advanced chips…
I mean, it kinda still does, but even if they did eventually invade, it wouldn’t necessarily make China the only game in town. There are already other fabrication plants going up around the globe, an invasion would definitely accelerate their development.
Arizona has chip fabs coming on line, (damn Joe Biden!) but construction of a fab and actually making chips at scale are two very different challenges.
China seems to be closest though, if they reach viable modern CPUs first…
But realistically, I think China made a deal with the West to hold off on Taiwan until we have at least one modern chip fab working in the US and Europe
I tend to agree, but leadership has been super questionable as of late
Yeah, but that would be like launching a nuke. The whole world is dependent on TSMC for like… All of modern life
The US has said they will blow them up “for them”. TSMC is supportive of US puppetted militarist fascism in Taiwan, but has backfired a bit from Trump. Tarriffs on Taiwan, and more restrictions on Chinese operations. TSMC definitely wants to avoid war even if it likes politicians that hype up weapons gifts, but also independently subsidizes it.
War is going to depend on US dictated decoupling, that black market can’t get around. The fascists will have a hard time trusting US backing for the island, as Trump has been softer on China than Taiwan so far this year.