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1 day agobookies put up their own money on the other side. adjust odds to try to even up the sides of a bet. Prediction markets are like a casino rake on a poker game. The casino is not gambling its own money.
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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024
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Like sports betting the goal is to try and get both sides to bet as evenly as possible and then take your cut off the top.
False. The house just takes a percentage of all bets (usually 0.5%). The price (from 0 to $1) is what fully balances buyers/sellers. The house has no risk of loss. You can say that futures markets or options are gambling with large majority of participants eventually losing everything they put up, but that doesn’t mean that futures prices do not have predictive value.
You obviously don’t understand what you are commenting on, and there is no valid reason to call what I said, endorsement spin.
They were better at 5 minute/hour before networks called results, for sure. 2016 had HRC/dems for congress 80% odds of winning both day before, and before polls closed. 2020 has Biden winning during that time, but when results were being announced state by state, Trump jumped to a 75% chance of winning. Here, the networks were right to say “but Philadelphia hasn’t counted yet” type of hedges to “fake early leads” by Trump who was yelling to stop counting. 2024 was predicted well the whole time.
Fine, prediction markets are gambling. They are better gambling propositions than traditional oddsmaker books which have higher margins/house take baked into them.
Big political outcomes is a helpful prediction market service, even/because insiders can cheat by betting on the outcome. Midterm outcomes, or (4% chance) of $5000 dividend cheque by March 31 2007 are specific probabilities that reveal pure BS.
Some horrible contracts are whether a speech will include some word, or outcomes that have already been predetermined (Oscars) with insiders who know 100% betting vs the clueless. Other terrible contracts include US-Iran ceasefire status. Too ambiguous, and resolution process is prone to corruption.
Still, these markets are more useful predictors than polls, because experts are analyzing with money instead of bias.
The$6T number is per year revenue target in 2031. 6B is a round number, but facebook has 3b monthly active users, and google ai overview has 2.5b monthly active users. baidu (no google overlap) has 644m monthly active users. So at 3b internet connected users addressable or so, its $2000/user. MAUs double count work/personal/multiple/bot accounts.
Also, there’s about 1b desk/knowledge workers in the world. = $6000/job/year
When we force other countries to invade for self defense, its good to convince our people that other country is the bad one.
every human being on earth would have to spend at least $150 per year on average.
6b humans would need to spend $1000/year on average. On top of phone/computer + internet/data services. Global average spending on food/year is $1500.
If they crank up the price then people will look elsewhere.
And, in last 2 weeks, the 2 leading US labs have reduced prices. Trend is going the opposite way.
the financial logic behind the data center buildout simply doesn’t hold up.
need to change assumptions that it requires a decent end ROI, or good economic proposition, when analyzing logic.
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Greater fool theory. Hype hype hype to cash out at IPO or buyout. Circular financing is your friend. Outright fraud of 5x more expensive data centers in space that are only useful for slow inference.
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There’s nothing else for the US to spend on, and aspirationally seek economic competitiveness with China. A race to end US employment for higher oligarch profits, as a bribe to narcissist in chief, becomes somehow MAGA.
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Skynet government surveillance, fascism, and geopolitical dominance. Government will buy all of the tokens or China wins. US fascism/oppression will increase to protect Israel first establishment power, or China wins. There can be no guardrails on US government, or AI bond villain, use of models, or China wins. Zero regulatory discussion exists on preventing the pursuit of Skynet, and “whoever wins AI, wins” is only/purely a Skynet goal, and it is policy unanimity. https://naturalfinance.blogspot.com/2026/09/a-global-prosperity-manifesto.html
An irony in 2nd/3rd point is that industry is fully aware that about 90% of tokens in SEA area datacenters are consumed in China, and it is one of biggest areas of new datacenter developments. So some chain of control in the profit/revenue flow from token sales to China is a near term priority over skynet dominance over China.
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The cost decline for a given level of performance does tend to slow over time
Even in their tests, there are big drops in 2026 models, and recent ones.
Opus 4.8 (may 2026), by far best model at the time, gets equaled by deepseek 4 pro (july 31) and 4.1 flash (sept 10th) at less than 1/100th the cost. MiMo 2.6 pro (sept 21) is even cheaper and beats opus 4.8 scores by a wide margin. sonnet 4.6 max to gpt luna high is also a 99% drop in a short time for lower performance models.
It’s proof of unsustainable AI bubble. Can’t hit those numbers. https://lemmy.ca/post/71626228/25584891
0·8 days agoThe TV has already been fed/plugged in to electric socket. Don’t listen to its BS
0·9 days agoridiculous rule for shows that have run longer than everything else on the list, and still popular.
searches for IASIP… 78th???
Suck it family guy/simpsons for surviving shows.
0·10 days agoalso, the best way to save the permitting issues would be solar and batteries with Chinese tariff exemptions to meet the scale requirements. This would add to consumer electricity availability as this datacenter is close to El Paso, and NM city. Site is sunniest area in US with cheapest land costs.
The resolution offered by the JCPOA (2015) basically gave Iran free reign to resume their activities, so long as they weren’t a threat to the global powers. It’s quite understandable that Israel would be just as upset with that solution as Iran was previously with the sanctions.
This is Israeli lie repeated by genocide seekers often for public propaganda supporting hate for emotional war agenda, rather than any rational gains for Americans in serving Israel. It doesn’t make JCPOA perfect. But pure demonic evil to force a war instead of any arguments for compliance improvements and trading Iranian prosperity for more certainty over nuclear programs.
Hacking is pejorative insult! Their dialup modem escaped containment after watching that hack the planet with the nice boobied goth/punk girl movie.
They know it doesn’t win wars. Israel doesn’t want a resolved war. Only pure destruction of Iran, and all political power in US is Israel first. When cruelty makes the enemy uppitty, rulership just yells harder about how they just hate America.
office chair or suitcase?
The guardrails are working as intended. ONLY persecute the public with them. Government skynet, and bond villains will have access to non guardrailed models, or any “flagged for review” markers will be ignored to bomb more elementary schools. A sheriff’s office is government power related. School shootings is just a thoughts and prayers issue, if you’re confused about the line between this and other incidents/attitudes we are being spied on for.