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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • Wanting to sell to China just means that demand isn’t exceeding supply, or maybe even that they have access to more supply that they’d use if they could sell to China, which is a massive market. Or even if they don’t have any excess supply, higher demand means they can set higher prices and still expect to sell all inventory.

    Nvidia has to sell to a Chinese buyer for 25% more than a US buyer would pay to have equivalent profit. It’s certainly possible that China is willing to pay more than that difference, but US private sector is supposed to be in desperation mode for skynet, in addition to having direct white house access of lobbying against China for mere trinkets in tribute. MSFT and others have the power to tell whitehouse/other republicans that they want to buy the H200s instead, and amplify warmongering BS as the reason. They just don’t want to buy them.

    Like the US car companies wanting to sell cars in China doesn’t imply that they are unable to sell cars in the US, it just means they want to sell cars to China and the US.

    US car companies are not supply constrained, including some of them with factories in China, and aren’t prohibited from selling all of their cars there if they were competitive. Nvidia has not been making H200s recently. It has astronomical record inventory levels (likely H200s based on lobbying win). Thier H20 cards that they sold to China the last 2 years, are the best value inference cards on ebay from China, but Americans were not allowed to buy them directly. Since about half of Nvidia GPUs are assembled in China, they have 0 problem with black market access to them, and massive secret Singapore customers of Nvidia are likely them directly profiting from Chinese black market with payment to Nvidia instead of pilferage of GPUs. I get that B200s B300s are better value/FLOP than H200s, but H200s could be priced to Americans/colonies on the same/similar $/flop, and if US/MSFT was really supply constrained, they’d buy or lobby government to force Nvidia to sell them at good $/flop. The Nvidia corruption is also likely to create new H200 production making newer GPUs “scarcer”


  • Microsoft’s finance chief, Amy Hood, argued that the cloud result could have been higher if it had allocated more data center infrastructure to customers rather than prioritizing its in-house needs.

    This is 98% chance a lie. Refusing azure clients wasn’t happening. They are saying the dedicated GPUs to copilot 365/windows/bing, but they would just slow tokens/second delivery or raise prices if they were constrained. Open AI/copilot service is flattening out is the far more likely explanation, and China/Anthropic/Google gaining share is apparent with frontend and LLM innovation.

    That said, windows 11 copilot is going at about 7tps on simple queries about its QOS, and slow service of paid models could impact azure. In Nov 25, they did drop big customer volume discounts. There were big price increases earlier in the year, so growth was in part pricing growth, and likely a drop in usage volume from previous quarter, or at least very stable. The AI frenzy, mostly openAI/msft/oracle/coreweave block of absurdly impossible capacity growth depends on keeping up with supposedly massive (token) demand growth. There are still a lot of free alternatives in the space, and app download figures usually accompany free promotional usage of latest breakthrough model (sora2 was free use on release. kilo code this week has free Kimi K2.5. Other coding tools have fully free or generous free tiers)

    Overall, this, and highly promotional industry, means its very hard for datacenter/LLMs to meet the hype. Deepseek 4 is hyped as a big leap forward, to be released in a couple of weeks. Everything AI boom is likely a lie, and Nvidia bribing Trump to sell H200s to China, at 25% export tariff, is proof of incapacity or unwillingness of US industry to deploy them.




  • 100%. I did get a 32gb mini pc this summer. win 11 is not as stable as win 10 on ddr3, mostly sleep/monitor issues. and 780m on ddr5 is about the same for gaming as 1660s on ddr3. Don’t chase gaming frame rates until prices get more reasonable. If you somehow don’t have a PC more recent than ddr3, then it’s not time to get into gaming, but upgrading cpu/gpu and an extra 16gb ram is likely the better value compared to new system.




  • do something useful

    Skynet or China wins is the goal. It’s useful to US empire to do Palantir surveilllance for “Patriotic subservience to Israel first agenda”. Robocops instead of ICE officers provides useful increase in bravery to apply fascism. We must race China in robots, without any manufacturing aptitude, or power capacity, with only extortionist oligarch power expansion options, under an oligarchist, corporatist, zionist supremacist fascism to concentrate oligarchy and fascism further, so as to force China to keep up and “everyone” (important) makes money playing the game of winning is which side gets destroyed more.

    So, as long as we view US empire as useful, Skynet is very useful. We can pretend that some other apps will be useful (Nadela is saying “just buy a PC and learn excel to be useful” as main point), but all of big tech is courting US government for big datacenter use, and political unanimity for war on China, means there is no other “useful” application required.

    The most important social permission for AI, is the permission to fund Skynet, and the permission for warmongering military budget and attitude. An Israel/Oligarchist first rulership means there is never any money for any other purpose than that supremacism. The destination of collapse is a consequence only for the little people. Wealth “creation” (pillaging) in the journey, and escape from consequences of collapse.



  • EVs alone have major grid balancing potential. You can get home batteries for under $100/kwh in US right now, and cost of EV batteries have always been lower due to bulk/contract purchases. At $100/kwh, even from grid TOU use power, you can time shift profitably for just 1c/kwh before financing costs, but before resilience/backup benefits from batteries.

    Solar is by far the cheapest way to charge those batteries, where home solar without monopoly persecution from utilities, as in Australia, can be extra affordable. But even before abundant solar is permitted in our countries, or even net metering, simply having TOU rates that are cheap at night allows for enough arbitrage for when TOU rates are high. Where some EVs are $300/kwh to $500/kwh for the entire car, TOU rates can allow for arbitrage that pays for whole car.





  • Important theory.

    “If AI were already replacing labour at scale, productivity growth should be accelerating

    There are headlines that suggest high productivity numbers, but tech capex now being 2% of GDP can be a big mask for those headlines. The way productivity is measured is sales divided by employment costs. Auto sector or insurance companies don’t have a genuine productivity boost if cars and insurance just cost more without employees making more of it.

    Overpaying for GPUs, power, and datacenter construction are fairly low employment activities, GPUs being made overseas at extreme revenue per kg is something that would especially skew productivity numbers. Any growth in datacenter revenue is also something accomplished with few employees, and their customers are not necessarily boosting their revenues/employee.





  • No. The Tianmen Square video is of tank man who made a tank stop instead of running him over. The protests were over a previous (1-3 nights before) protest or, according to Chinese Government, riot where protesters were killed. Deaths did not happen after tankman.


  • All of the ICE vehicles I’ve seen are unmarked, with non-uniformed masked men jumping out of them and attacking people or their vehicles. Maybe 10 years ago, a Florida Man shot a black kid for wearing a hoodie, and got off on “stand your ground laws”. Apparentlly, MAGA thinks “if they could be ICE, give them all your money and vehicles” or you, as domestic terrorist scum, deserve to get killed.