That only applies to spaceX saps who bought after IPO fraud. The big owners of the 2 LLM companies are Google and Amazon. They can break even on their datacenters because just their stakes will probably reach $1T before saps get to hold the bag.

Failure can just mean that they need to slow down from the absurd expansion commitments. Saying there must be a bailout is saying that there needs to be 3x more datacenters by tuesday, even if fraud is behind that push. “We need to maintain the fraud for longer” means we need to make the bubble even larger so that bailing out the fraudsters when it pops seems bigger economic impact.

If it sounds dumb, it’s because it’s meant to. “Buy them if they fail” debate leads to more onerous alternative proposals. The US is on a mission to make Skynet for Israel or China wins. It’s hard for them to fail when Skynet will pay high prices for their datacenter time. But if they fail, it will be because they are too expensive, and “American people” owning them doesn’t pay American people anything if they are stuck losing money forever. And the other alternatives that stem from debate, is “why not just throw government money at bubble top rates?”

Flat earth theory is that earth is a pancake (must sit on turtles all the way down) where north pole is at center and antartica on the edge.

They say that sun and moon just make circular patterns above the pancake, but that is still impossible as the sun and moon would still always be visible if it is just further away from your spot, and the sunrise/sunset dynamic can no longer happen. Even if you change it to a dome shaped pancake, to get some hiding of the sun, then southern hemisphere no longer has predictable daytimes.

Surprising fact about renewable energy: It provides electrical energy! That means you don’t need as much other sources of electricity compared to not having any renewable energy. Now you know.

Not sure if you are actually pretending its out of reach. China’s battery additions including EVs is 39% of massive electricity production increases. Rate of growth in battery sales about double while energy growth is 5-8% range. That is much easier for any country that isn’t the absolute global manufacturing nexus.

s your claim still that EVs will form a significant portion of the grid? I thought that trope died sometime around 2020 when it was obvious that Elon is a megalomaniac.

China is over 60% car sales as EV share. Massive battery capacity just from EVs available, from an auto market 5x the size of the US. LFP continues to have advantages over Sodium Ion (that needs vanadium to be "useful competitor), and lithium is abundant.

but there’s a reason why no grid runs solely on solar and wind for any meaningful amount of time, and that’s because it’s not physically possible.

False but the only path forward is not thinking you must nuke all other energy from orbit and turn a switch. Path forward is ever more renewables additions, and using existing infrastructure as backup/winter generation. Getting to 100% renewables is a journey. More and more renewable additions every year. Not a “impossible because it is not current reality” conclusion.

German high energy prices are not result of abandoning expensive short term nuclear refurbishments. It is pure colonial extortion by US to force them into war on Russia, and buy US LNG. Global coal prices have risen as well as a result of EU LNG dependence. Any renewables mitigate those establishment energy costs. The one bad energy policy has is not letting industry participate in wholesale electricity markets. They are forced to use fixed rates.

Also French plants the last 2 years have had to shut down in summer, not due to low river levels, but too high water temperatures of the rivers

Even in US, $100/kwh retail battery price points with bms, 48v, exist. Utility scale in rest of world is much cheaper. China is $51/kwh for a containerized full battery solution with (4 hour) inverter. At 7% ROI (to pay for full 30 year mortgage on LFP batteries as that is their life expectancy at slow charge/discharge rates) means just 1c/kwh discharge profit is required to pay for $55/kwh batteries. Similar calculation for just 4 sun hours/day. $600/kw installation costs at 7% ROI, means 3c/kwh daytime electricity rates.

There’s not just exponential growth as @[email protected] pointed out, it is dumb to do anything else.

solar + batteries scales to any size. The bigger it is the cheaper per w/wh. It is by far the cheapest energy. It does generate seasonal surpluses, and requires a “dump/optional” load. dump loads can be hydrogen/desalination, and optional loads can be datacenters that scale down during winter. Significant battery fraction can come from EV penetration. Some (mostly chinese) EVs can pay for cost of the car by just keeping it parked in driveway and earning 3c/kwh profit from night discharge rates relative to day charge rates.

Nuclear energy is categorically uneconomical. Fossil fuel oligarchy and establishment support it because it is uneconomical and a complete non threat to energy oligarchy. It’s military use justifies the fraud and bribery of pretending it is economical.

that whole country walks up for gatherings.

what is the name of the “hills” in the southern midwest? what states do they cover?

AI: help me get straight A+s in school wink wink

There is white hat potential for this “creativity”. Find more/“all” vulnerabilities and get them patched. US empire allegiance will promote other paths, though.

Huawei is far ahead of Nvidia in AI clusters despite sanctions made against it, and 5 year behind tech stack. 50% cost/performance advantage over GB300 nvl72, (including building costs) by building outdoor siteable pods with 3 week lead times. CXMT is now most valuable company in China, but because of Huawei sanctions, they sell 64gb ddr5 modules at higher price than Samsung just to Huawei. Huawei needs its own RAM fab because it is harassed by west, and Chinese suppliers price to them with “captured customer” awareness.

We/all need AI for medical breakthrough potential… though.

Open models are still most cheaply hosted on a cloud, with batching and 24/7 use. API rates from developer lab are generally fair. Self hosting does have some significant tangible benefits though: Fine tuning for domain specific to organization, and not letting LLM provider train from your prompts/answers, followed by competing with your organization in the future as a result of “distilling your IP”.

It is burying old news in headline. The consequences/pitfalls of their “strategic shift” are fairly new. The layoffs were explicitly justified for pivot to datacenters that OpenAI will “surely” be able to rent. The new extra problems in that strategic shift just makes them look worse for going all in on the bubble.

There is zero proof of distillation. Minimax 2.7 development was surrounded by moderate use of Claude. M3 is their latest generation, and pretty solid, but its performance cannot be attributed solely (or even 5%) to distillation, and that is only lab that has been accused of significant API use. These claims are all 3-4 months old by now, and Anthropic blocked China access after publishing the accusations. Repeated BS is BS from losers trying to lobby for support.