Bro. You set the fucking prices you asshole.
The best time to build a chip fab is 10 years ago. The second best time is right now.
AI companies gonna crash, and then memory manufacturers will be left with 50% oversupply no one wants to buy. So they don’t build new factories yet.
Don’t worry. The government will bail them out
Which government? SK hynix is a South Korean manufacturer, along with Samsung. This is one area the Trump administration can’t get its fingers involved.
Anyway both companies have shit tons of money I don’t think they need bailing out
All of them. South Korean government already announced they’re all in on AI so that includes supporting the chip manufacturers in any way possible.
Micron
Nope. All this will continue with robotics. They will need a lot of memory, cpu and Ai capabilities and will connect to datacenters.
Its dystopia being built here. Nothing will stop it. This is literally run top down from billionaries and they can’t be voted away.
There may also be a trend with spy glasses or clothes or other stuff that people will wear. Trans humanism is popular in pervo circles. Merging with machines. Implants. All of this is driving demand for tech.
We are 10 years away minimum from robotics being a viable technology. We’ve got the early alpha prototypes right now but look at how long it took to get to where they are. I remember watching YouTube videos 15 years ago about the atlas robot and it still isn’t commercially available.
I think it will go a lot faster than that personally, but depends on what we mean. Are we talking fully autonomous robots walking around inside our houses, carrying out tasks? That will take much longer than just some model that is like Alexa, standing in a corner…
We will probably see guard robots who can guard areas as a first step. Just watching and monitoring areas and being able to walk. Very basic.
But yeah we will see. Wish I could say it’s exciting but I think its just going to make humanity worse… We don’t get happier with tech, just more isolated and sad.
and they lose even more money, since the order for chips is few years in advance too, and they cant manufacter enough non-ai ones.
I wouldn’t risk it. The AI market is full of SpaceX like companies, massively overvalued despite literally never making a profit and having no coherent business plan beyond crossing their fingers and hoping they create AGI.
It takes 5 or 6 years minimum to step up a fab, the AI market is so unstable it could be gone by next week. If you want to cash in on this particular gold rush you need to already own the pickaxes.
Yup.
What’s that line? “Luck is when preparation meets opportunity”?
Nah, they did that in the past, then demand suddenly went back to normal. That’s why my 64 GB DDR5 RAM was 200€ last year.
They are scared shitless to expand, because if they do and the AI bubble bursts they won’t make their money back. So they obviously prefer to constrain the supply, rake in massive profits and just wait it out.
Doing damage control to try and get the general public back on side when the AI bubble inevitably bursts.
*Gold rush shovel seller:
Current shovel prices are “abnormally high”
horrible lede burying headline.
“That’s why I believe factories should be built not only in Honam but also in the U.S. If possible, they must be constructed. Trade pressures and various issues must be considered, which is why we are exploring options.” Chairman Chey stated, “We are currently searching for locations to build factories. We must find every possible site worldwide, evaluate which is best, fastest, and largest, prioritize them, and build quickly.”
Thank you. Semiconductor technology has been due for a big technological innovation for a while now, and not just for economic diversification.
The current economic situation is indicative of that. If there had already been more competition across the globe creating external pressure, maybe we’d have more breakthroughs and we wouldn’t be seeing such a strong economic and technological bottleneck
semiconductor fab profits are also ‘abnormally high’.
Gee Chey…ya fuckin’ think so? Maybe you should double check. /s
it seems like he has his head screwed on straight, dealing with these long term boom/bust cycles has got to be a big part of the job
People keep acting like this is unprecedented, and maybe it hasn’t specifically happened this way before, but boom/bust seems to happen every few years.
To hear my dad and other older folks talk, though, it sounds like things were really good in the ’90s and they haven’t seen commission checks like that since.
