I’m sad for my portfolio but happy for the people
Good.
Growth should be steady and sustainable, not frontloaded
To quote Spongebob:
“Pop the bubble!”
4LYFE
Go, go, go, go…
“tech stocks dramatically plunge”
clickbait nonsense, as expected from yahoo news. Some are up a bit, some are down a bit, but there’s no “dramatic plunge”. Except for oracle and maybe tesla, but that’s a story specific to them.
Always question the source… why would a financial trading page want you to think stocks are about to plummet?
Hahahahahaha FUCK YOU ORACLE!
sorry, needed to get that out of my system
Dude me too seeing them in the red brings a tear of joy to my eye
One Rich Asshole Called Larry Ellison.
Don’t forget SpaceX. I’d say $123 down from the peak of $211 is a pretty dramatic plunge
And IBM had a 25% loss in a day.
The weird one with IBM is that their stock dropped after they announced they didn’t jump on the AI hype train.
I’d heard it was more that they said the AI business had taken the oxygen out of the room for them. Software was getting ignored. I think everyone knew IBM wasn’t an AI player, but them saying AI had a knock on effect for them scared some.
It’s since recovered, but it was one hell of a reaction.
That IBM is no more right?
Yeah, they bounced and flattened out to where they were before. I think it just shows that the markets are on a hair trigger right now.
its just sad that emotional manipulation works so well on the stock market.
Those who recognize that can make a killing
Trading on vibes, what could go wrong
YESSSSS!!! FINALLY!
We need to be hearing AI customers saying “This is so great, we’re going to double our AI spend next year!”
We’re actually hearing “What’s the ROI on this? We’re looking to cut back.”
That’s just not consistent with the exponential growth OpenAI and Anthropic need to survive.
That’s just not consistent with the exponential growth OpenAI and Anthropic need to survive.
I honestly can’t think of a worse business model than needing exponential growth just to survive.
There’s a financial bubble and a mental bubble. They are related and feed each other but they are not the same and might not blow up at the same time.
The Market, according to the article, isn’t losing its faith in AI as the Ultimate Technology (the mental bubble or “AI psychosis”). It’s just questioning its belief that one or two companies might be able to squeeze massive profits out of it (the financial bubble).
Investors thought one AI winner would emerge relatively quickly, a new SuperGoogle or HyperAmazon that would make all the money in the world by providing access to AI to every other company. The AI winner would then gleefully enshittify their product while making it more expensive over time, eventually turning huge profits (even including the Trillions of investment spent to get there).
Now, with multiple companies that are offering an almost equivalent product and are forced to compete on price while already bleeding billions every quarter, everyone might just run out of money before the winner is declared. Not a scenario many are willing to invest in.
But the idea that AI can do everyone’s job or give anyone 100x superpowers will still be out there. And all the CEOs and CTOs who thought they would look like thought leaders if they bet everything on AI will not easily change their minds all at once. They will still be easy marks for the next snake oil salesman, selling them a product based on cheap, less powerful models or whatever they can insist can still perform the 100x miracle at an actually bearable cost.
Some might actually be useful products, it’s just that if the mental bubble, overinflating what AI can do doesn’t blow, they can still be sold way above their actual worth.
If you are an investor, this is a classic picks and shovels play. No one is going to be able to guess which lab puts out the best models, none of them really have a moat. However, every lab is going to need massive amounts of hardware to train and serve their models. It doenst even matter if open source models end up winning, they still need massive hardware to train and infer.
there is one financial bubble and it is purely about unsustainable investment, as that is what defines a bubble. Like when they started throwing cash at the pet food company pets.com because it had pets.com even though they were shipping pet food and selling it below cost… These companies are just doing bad business and surviving because people throw money at them hoping to get in on the action.
It’s like if you had some uncle who drove a fancy car and said he had some big business k idea and he was going to make the family rich, and your dad and grandma started giving him their life savings as an investment, but you knew there was no business, he leased that car, and he lost most of it gambling and continued to gamble.
At some point no matter how much hype he generates, your grandma and dad run out of money, and the entrepreneur ends up in debt.
There are companies right now with sound business plans, and then there are OpenAI’s which sell their service below cost and wouldn’t be able to keep the doors open if investors stopped investing. WebVan closed their doors the day the dot com bubble popped because they literally couldnt pay payroll anymore. One day similar will happen and some companies will collapse.
One will be the next Amazon, the survivor that proved it had a sound business, and everyone is hoping they invested in the next Amazon. But tons of people right now are investing in the next WebVan or Pets.com, which might have been good ideas but too much too soon.
Yes, but them spending a lot of company money for a low ROI product while sacking experienced employees will have a detrimental effect on their company’s performance as well. And thus on their own stock value.
It will peak and become more boring and Google like.
Look I think these prices are unsustainable, but the article basically says nvidia 1.4pct down and then goes to a non ai company being down. It’s a dramatic title, not a dramatic plunge.
Hm, thanks for confirming my skepticism I guess.
Still, even the existence of such articles gives a little hope that the bubble might burst.
The hype was to rug pull some IPOs, worked at least once with Spacex
The market is finally starting to question if there will be an ROI to all the capex.
Calling every correction the »end of the AI bubble« has become a tradition. The internet, smartphones and cloud computing all had brutal selloffs before transforming the economy. If AI delivers the productivity gains many expect, today’s pullback may look like noise rather than the beginning of the end.
Yeah that’s a big IF. Currently, it seems that AI does NOT deliver the massive gains in productivity the AI companies promised. In fact, AI turns out to be a lot more expensive than human employees for a lot of companies, without delivering higher productivity.
The problem is that most companies aren’t really automating: as long as they continue to pay staff and invest in AI without changing their processes, they’ll simply be overtaken by others.
So you’re saying buy the dip?
Hehe… Good question. I don’t see a dip on the horizon at the moment. But ASML, Nvidia, Google, Amazon and the like are still a long way from reaching their full potential. However, I find the Chinese AI providers even more exciting in the long term.
