That lines up on the technical side, too, with how LLM “intelligence” is plateauing, cost of cheaper models is decreasing, where open weights are going and such. Q3 2027 seems about when an OpenAI coding subscription makes no sense.
That being said, I’d be wary of the “Facebook effect.”
Once a service gains a huge foothold, it can deteriorate for a long time without going away. Especially with regulatory capture. And for many smartphone users, OpenAI is the only AI they know.
I agree with this.
That lines up on the technical side, too, with how LLM “intelligence” is plateauing, cost of cheaper models is decreasing, where open weights are going and such. Q3 2027 seems about when an OpenAI coding subscription makes no sense.
That being said, I’d be wary of the “Facebook effect.”
Once a service gains a huge foothold, it can deteriorate for a long time without going away. Especially with regulatory capture. And for many smartphone users, OpenAI is the only AI they know.