There is literally zero incentive for companies to make ram and sell it cheap. The market is used to current prices, and by 2030 current prices will be looked at as cheap.
Even if that’s true, I’m predicting either AI companies just buy all of that too. Or the US government doesn’t allow the import of it because it’s from China
We could always just not, and use whatever RAM we can get. I’d rather have a thriving market with slightly worse RAM than motherboards that require a RAM no one can afford.
Nope it is for legacy systems which are not upgraded to new standard.
“Of course, today’s PCs don’t use DDR2, so we’re likely to see the impact of these price increases landing in areas like embedded systems, networking equipment, industrial controllers, automotive electronics, and other long-lived devices that were designed around it and are too costly to requalify on newer memory generations like DDR4 and five.”
China will not collapse. It produces too many goods and its economy is too strong. Birth rates aren’t a problem to the point that they undermine manufacturing.
If someone tries to tell you the story that China will collapse and they seem credible, just reach out to me. I have a bridge for sale that will help you short the Chinese collapse.
And if they’re not as xenophobic as some other countries I could mention, they could easily solve the population issue through immigration.
Every Chinese book I’ve read screams at me nationalism and xenophobia, be it modern fantasy, 50 years old detective series or comedy.
And immigration to China is - currently - heavily restricted. Like damn heavily. And you will not become a permanent resident, and there is literally 0 chance of becoming a citizen, unless you’re of Han Chinese descent, preferably first generation, preferably looking Chinese, and you can’t have dual nationality (from last census in 2020 about 17.000 people ever got a citizenship, which is what. 0.0012% of population? And the permanent residency in 2017 was about 10k total).
My country, Poland (about 38m people), grants more than that every year.
Chinese government does not seem to agree with you, considering its:
Pro natal policies
Heavy research into automation being sold as “to fill in labour gaps” (even though the gig work is skyrocketing)
Retirement age reforms increasing the retirement age
Chinese universities also do not agree with your flippant attitude and are literally alarmist about it:
Tsinghua projections (that accurately predicted peak of population) show halving the population (and that > 50% will be people over retirement age) by the year 2100:
https://www.dess.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/info/1226/2472.htm
On the other hand the dude who was saying something about collapsing in 3 years also didn’t knew what he was talking about.
We’ll let the runaway inflation after the AI crash eat away at the currency’s value until RAM is back at the old value, even with the much higher prices, then wait for wages to catch up a bit. By then they’ll have a nice unsold supply.
People aren’t saying AI is going to disappear, although that wouldn’t be a bad thing imo. When people talk about an AI crash they’re talking about the trillions in investments by the major companies that have been operating at a loss and have no monetization plan that could feasibly recoup even a fraction of that amount. Open source models are nearly as good as the big guys now, and nobody is going to pay hundreds or thousands a month just to keep using chatgpt or Gemini.
It’s not just the models that make the big players great, it’s the proprietary tools to use those models. Claude code, codex, seedance, etc are what everyone wants and what are so groundbreaking, not the LLM that they use.
Nah they’re saying the like 3 places that manufacture RAM won’t drop their prices after
You mean the companies that formed a cartel 20 years ago might do the same again? Couldn’t be.
The Chinese fabs should be producing lots of RAM by 2030.
There is literally zero incentive for companies to make ram and sell it cheap. The market is used to current prices, and by 2030 current prices will be looked at as cheap.
I doubt that, ASML won’t suddenly flood china with lithography machines.
Even if that’s true, I’m predicting either AI companies just buy all of that too. Or the US government doesn’t allow the import of it because it’s from China
Sucks to be american then
Isn’t it all from china already?
Old/current ram or new ram? Probably be moving on to DDR6 then
I’ll buy DDR4 if it means I can feed my family too
DDR5 will probably stick around for a long time if DDR6 is not affordable.
I’m still on DDR4 and it does what I need it to.
We could always just not, and use whatever RAM we can get. I’d rather have a thriving market with slightly worse RAM than motherboards that require a RAM no one can afford.
DDR2 Prices are up 60% as AI datacenters are slapping together whatever hardware they can get.
There is NO affordable RAM, and this is by design.
Nope it is for legacy systems which are not upgraded to new standard.
“Of course, today’s PCs don’t use DDR2, so we’re likely to see the impact of these price increases landing in areas like embedded systems, networking equipment, industrial controllers, automotive electronics, and other long-lived devices that were designed around it and are too costly to requalify on newer memory generations like DDR4 and five.”
I think these are false options. If there’s a thriving market for us there’s a thriving market for them
China will be running out of people soon. Their birth rate has been in collapse.
1.4 billion people will disappear in just 3 years?
Their birth rate is “In collapse” because they already have a gigantic population that is too big.
China will not collapse. It produces too many goods and its economy is too strong. Birth rates aren’t a problem to the point that they undermine manufacturing.
If someone tries to tell you the story that China will collapse and they seem credible, just reach out to me. I have a bridge for sale that will help you short the Chinese collapse.
The problem is they modify goods, not produce them.
Intellectual property shouldn’t exist. If China wants to “steal” ram designs and sell them for cheaper, then LeT tHe fReE mArKeT wOrK
That’s simply not how the current economy works.
That’s a wholly different topic.
But they’ll still have plenty of people by 2030.
And if they’re not as xenophobic as some other countries I could mention, they could easily solve the population issue through immigration.
Every Chinese book I’ve read screams at me nationalism and xenophobia, be it modern fantasy, 50 years old detective series or comedy.
And immigration to China is - currently - heavily restricted. Like damn heavily. And you will not become a permanent resident, and there is literally 0 chance of becoming a citizen, unless you’re of Han Chinese descent, preferably first generation, preferably looking Chinese, and you can’t have dual nationality (from last census in 2020 about 17.000 people ever got a citizenship, which is what. 0.0012% of population? And the permanent residency in 2017 was about 10k total).
My country, Poland (about 38m people), grants more than that every year.
Yeah, this will probably have interesting consequences down the line, but not in 2030, and maybe not 2100 even
Chinese government does not seem to agree with you, considering its:
Chinese universities also do not agree with your flippant attitude and are literally alarmist about it:
Tsinghua projections (that accurately predicted peak of population) show halving the population (and that > 50% will be people over retirement age) by the year 2100: https://www.dess.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/info/1226/2472.htm
On the other hand the dude who was saying something about collapsing in 3 years also didn’t knew what he was talking about.
Imo, if they succeed in automating everything they probably will not have to care about drop in population either
Yeah, but if they started right now I bet they could pump out some new adults inside of 20 years.
They literally can’t.
We’ll let the runaway inflation after the AI crash eat away at the currency’s value until RAM is back at the old value, even with the much higher prices, then wait for wages to catch up a bit. By then they’ll have a nice unsold supply.
People that think there’s going to be an AI crash are in for a rough future. The genie is out of its bottle and it’s never going back in.
You may as well be saying that there’s going to be an EV crash.
People aren’t saying AI is going to disappear, although that wouldn’t be a bad thing imo. When people talk about an AI crash they’re talking about the trillions in investments by the major companies that have been operating at a loss and have no monetization plan that could feasibly recoup even a fraction of that amount. Open source models are nearly as good as the big guys now, and nobody is going to pay hundreds or thousands a month just to keep using chatgpt or Gemini.
It’s not just the models that make the big players great, it’s the proprietary tools to use those models. Claude code, codex, seedance, etc are what everyone wants and what are so groundbreaking, not the LLM that they use.
EV crash, he he.
Nailed it