I definitely know at least one woman IRL that would post like that.
Aight let’s do a quick lesson in Bayes Theorem, here in a shitpost community.
Imagine there is a disease that exists in 1% of the population. Medical science develops a test with 90% accuracy (both in false positives and false negatives) on whether a person has the disease. Your doctor orders the test, and it comes up positive and saying that you have the disease. What is the probability that you actually have it?
Well if you test an entire population of 1000, 10 of whom have the disease, it will correctly positively identify 9 out of 10 who have the disease, and incorrectly give false positive results to 99 out of the 990 who don’t have it. So among the 108 people who get positive results, you only about 8.3% chance of having the disease.
My Bayesian priors for an anonymous prolific poster of thirstposts in a shitposting community on a heavily tech-centric social media platform is that they’re about 90% likely to be 30+ year old men. Claiming to be an 18 year old woman might move the needle a little bit, but not as much as you might think.
Aight let’s do a quick lesson in Bayes Theorem, here in a shitpost community.
Imagine there is a disease that exists in 1% of the population. Medical science develops a test with 90% accuracy (both in false positives and false negatives) on whether a person has the disease. Your doctor orders the test, and it comes up positive and saying that you have the disease. What is the probability that you actually have it?
Well if you test an entire population of 1000, 10 of whom have the disease, it will correctly positively identify 9 out of 10 who have the disease, and incorrectly give false positive results to 99 out of the 990 who don’t have it. So among the 108 people who get positive results, you only about 8.3% chance of having the disease.
My Bayesian priors for an anonymous prolific poster of thirstposts in a shitposting community on a heavily tech-centric social media platform is that they’re about 90% likely to be 30+ year old men. Claiming to be an 18 year old woman might move the needle a little bit, but not as much as you might think.