I think the evidence against it being intended seriously is that Trump is an apparently straight man. Now, there’s a lot of reasons an apparently straight man would suck off a dude, so it’s far from impossible, but: the vast majority of apparently straight men are actually straight, and the vast majority of straight men would prefer not to have oral sex with a man, so I think this does count as evidence against it being literally true.

There’s a particular online discourse that sees Trump and MAGA as not merely being a bit hypocritical, but as being extremely hypocritical - a strand which believes that every Republican expressing homophobia as being closeted. So I think while people understand on one level that it’s not reasonable to think that some random guy who professed to be straight actually sucked off another guy on the basis of an email from someone shady, when the guy is not random but the leader of MAGA, those people instead leap on it because it fits with that hypocrisy narrative.

You’re absolutely right that we don’t know which of the possibilities is true, but I said what I did because it seems like a lot of people are just taking it at face value, which doesn’t seem smart.