EU is a giant mess at this point, and it’s really not clear to me how it’s going to move forward. The EU doesn’t appear to have a coherent strategy on how to deal with the US, Russia, or China. It’s becoming geopolitically irrelevant, and the economy is going into a recession. The apparatchiks running the project don’t seem to have any bright ideas or even basic awareness of the problems EU is facing.
Not really, because the main alternative to the neoliberal centre seems to be on the right. I’m really not sure what to expect in Europe in the coming years.
Thanks again, I see it like that. These days I predict the US has more chances of changing than Europe since the lack of social net will precipitate the demand for change more radically.
Finally, what is your take on leftist parties in Europe such as Diem25 (I am not versed on the differences Marxist, leninist and that)?
I expect that there will be a split between the US and Europe in the coming years. The US sees China as its main adversary, and Europe is losing strategic relevance for the US because Russia is not an ideological opponent the way USSR was.
However, if the US simply left Europe then it would end up gravitating towards the east, first economically, then politically. That would be highly undesirable from the US perspective as it could result in a huge Eurasian bloc with from Europe, to Russia, to China. In my view this is what the war in Ukraine is all about. In fact, National Interest published a very revealing article back in 2021, while it focuses on Russia, it’s pretty clear how the argument extends to Europe as well https://nationalinterest.org/feature/strategy-avoiding-two-front-war-192137
The US has also been predating on Europe economically since the start of the war. US companies have been enjoying selling energy to Europe at high prices while Biden’s inflation reduction act lured companies away from Europe. Today, Trump is building on this strategy with massive tariffs designed to stifle Europe’s economy and lure more business to the US. The threat of Russia is also being used to force Europe into massive increase in military spending, most of which will go to American military industry.
All of this is bad news for Europe economically, and that’s creating a lot of internal political tension. As people see their standard of living collapse, they’re turning to nationalist parties because the neoliberal center has lost its credibility in their eyes. Hence why we see a surge of support for RN in France, AfD becoming a major party in Germany, and so on. I expect we’ll see more of what we saw in Romania where elections will be cancelled, candidates arrested, parties banned, and so on. All of that will further delegitimize the current system as people start realizing they’re not living in a genuine democracy.
Unfortunately, the left has been systematically dismantled in Europe since the end of WW2. What I mean specifically is the economic left. Socialism in Marxist terms mean worker ownership over the means of production which is directly at odds with the current capitalist state of relations where private ownership is the norm. Most of what constitutes the left in the west, such as social democrats, does not challenge capitalist relations. These parties simply want to curb the worst excess of capitalism such as having the rich pay more taxes, provide more social services, and so on. These are reformist parties that seek some form of sustainable capitalism.
There are a handful of genuine socialist parties in Europe, but they’re extremely marginalized and I can’t see how they can break into mainstream politics at this time. One of the problems is with messaging. The right has a big advantage here because their narrative is largely compatible with what people already believe. In a sense, the right is also a reformist type of movement where they’re not suggesting any revolutionary change. People who become disillusioned with the mainstream have easy time gravitating towards the tropes the right peddle like immigrants being the problem and taking people’s jobs away.
On the other hand, accepting socialist narrative requires accepting that the current system is fundamentally broken and there needs to be radical restructuring of society. In my opinion, what socialist left needs to focus on is crafting its messaging in a way that resonates with the public. The narrative has to be at least as appealing as what the right offers for people to even start to listen.
Insightful comment. I consider myself politically neutral yet I can tell apart when a genocide is happening, privacy violations, a ailing society, and a long etc. You are completely right with “socialist left needs to focus on is crafting its messaging in a way that resonates with the public”. I still not sure if socialism is a solution but gosh… if a wondering mind like me, gets with a rancid aftertaste when reading words like “means of production”, “capitalism”, “Marxist”… for real, the language needs to update and connect with people… It is like I say “we need to gather around the wireless to hear news”. (in 1910s radio was known as “wireless” from wireless telegraph)… it is a good statement but if i said some people simple will get confused with the term and the rest will know the term but simply think a person that uses those old references cannot possibly have the solution for today’s world problems.
EU is a giant mess at this point, and it’s really not clear to me how it’s going to move forward. The EU doesn’t appear to have a coherent strategy on how to deal with the US, Russia, or China. It’s becoming geopolitically irrelevant, and the economy is going into a recession. The apparatchiks running the project don’t seem to have any bright ideas or even basic awareness of the problems EU is facing.
Could not agree more here! Any group you follow there you see with a minimal grasp of reality?
Not really, because the main alternative to the neoliberal centre seems to be on the right. I’m really not sure what to expect in Europe in the coming years.
Thanks again, I see it like that. These days I predict the US has more chances of changing than Europe since the lack of social net will precipitate the demand for change more radically. Finally, what is your take on leftist parties in Europe such as Diem25 (I am not versed on the differences Marxist, leninist and that)?
I expect that there will be a split between the US and Europe in the coming years. The US sees China as its main adversary, and Europe is losing strategic relevance for the US because Russia is not an ideological opponent the way USSR was.
However, if the US simply left Europe then it would end up gravitating towards the east, first economically, then politically. That would be highly undesirable from the US perspective as it could result in a huge Eurasian bloc with from Europe, to Russia, to China. In my view this is what the war in Ukraine is all about. In fact, National Interest published a very revealing article back in 2021, while it focuses on Russia, it’s pretty clear how the argument extends to Europe as well https://nationalinterest.org/feature/strategy-avoiding-two-front-war-192137
The US has also been predating on Europe economically since the start of the war. US companies have been enjoying selling energy to Europe at high prices while Biden’s inflation reduction act lured companies away from Europe. Today, Trump is building on this strategy with massive tariffs designed to stifle Europe’s economy and lure more business to the US. The threat of Russia is also being used to force Europe into massive increase in military spending, most of which will go to American military industry.
All of this is bad news for Europe economically, and that’s creating a lot of internal political tension. As people see their standard of living collapse, they’re turning to nationalist parties because the neoliberal center has lost its credibility in their eyes. Hence why we see a surge of support for RN in France, AfD becoming a major party in Germany, and so on. I expect we’ll see more of what we saw in Romania where elections will be cancelled, candidates arrested, parties banned, and so on. All of that will further delegitimize the current system as people start realizing they’re not living in a genuine democracy.
Unfortunately, the left has been systematically dismantled in Europe since the end of WW2. What I mean specifically is the economic left. Socialism in Marxist terms mean worker ownership over the means of production which is directly at odds with the current capitalist state of relations where private ownership is the norm. Most of what constitutes the left in the west, such as social democrats, does not challenge capitalist relations. These parties simply want to curb the worst excess of capitalism such as having the rich pay more taxes, provide more social services, and so on. These are reformist parties that seek some form of sustainable capitalism.
There are a handful of genuine socialist parties in Europe, but they’re extremely marginalized and I can’t see how they can break into mainstream politics at this time. One of the problems is with messaging. The right has a big advantage here because their narrative is largely compatible with what people already believe. In a sense, the right is also a reformist type of movement where they’re not suggesting any revolutionary change. People who become disillusioned with the mainstream have easy time gravitating towards the tropes the right peddle like immigrants being the problem and taking people’s jobs away.
On the other hand, accepting socialist narrative requires accepting that the current system is fundamentally broken and there needs to be radical restructuring of society. In my opinion, what socialist left needs to focus on is crafting its messaging in a way that resonates with the public. The narrative has to be at least as appealing as what the right offers for people to even start to listen.
Insightful comment. I consider myself politically neutral yet I can tell apart when a genocide is happening, privacy violations, a ailing society, and a long etc. You are completely right with “socialist left needs to focus on is crafting its messaging in a way that resonates with the public”. I still not sure if socialism is a solution but gosh… if a wondering mind like me, gets with a rancid aftertaste when reading words like “means of production”, “capitalism”, “Marxist”… for real, the language needs to update and connect with people… It is like I say “we need to gather around the wireless to hear news”. (in 1910s radio was known as “wireless” from wireless telegraph)… it is a good statement but if i said some people simple will get confused with the term and the rest will know the term but simply think a person that uses those old references cannot possibly have the solution for today’s world problems.