Exponential improvement is indeed optimistic - a sigmoid curve (plateauing after a period of increase) is much more plausible, though in the computer programming case I haven’t noticed the plateau yet.
Indeed, throughout nature it’s almost all sigmoids. The trick is that sigmoids look exponential before the inflection point and it’s hard to predict when that inflection point is going to come.
Exponential improvement is indeed optimistic - a sigmoid curve (plateauing after a period of increase) is much more plausible, though in the computer programming case I haven’t noticed the plateau yet.
Indeed, throughout nature it’s almost all sigmoids. The trick is that sigmoids look exponential before the inflection point and it’s hard to predict when that inflection point is going to come.