No one thinks companies like Google or Microsoft are going away.
What’s going to happen is that OpenAI and Anthropic will ultimately fold because they can’t be profitable, Google and Microsoft will scale back their supremely unprofitable LLM operations, Micron and NVIDIA will plunge in value because all of a sudden their bloated prices aren’t being paid by anyone, Oracle will suffer because OpenAI can’t pay its enormous bills with them, massive data center projects will end before completion, and a whole lot of smaller businesses that embraced all this madness will collapse.
That will have devastating ripple effects throughout the economy. It’s going to be a lot larger than the dotcom bubble bursting.
I do think the inflated valuations are in-fact existational threats to Microsoft and Google. Tech stocks are so over valued that they very well can go into a death spiral when investors no longer believe the company will grow exponentially. Its happened before, and will happen again. Thats why they are so desperate to hype AI. Thats the only illusion that have left to justify future growth.
I mean, the names will still be there, but you will have consolidation and buyouts and other changes of ownership. Some will continue as a shell of their former selves (like old school IBM), while others will just vaporise (Kodak). There’s not really a reliable mechanism for a companies valuation to shrink by several orders of magnitude and just cut back and continue as a stable smaller company.
Obviously, the people at the top will get government handouts to stay rich and it will be all our pensions that get cleaned out. Thats how this works. Cheer the bubble bursting, but only because the earlier the less harm for all of us. Ram won’t get cheaper either.
What’s going to happen is that OpenAI and Anthropic will ultimately fold because they can’t be profitable
OpenAI maybe because it has a consumer focus and most of their users aren’t paying, more likely they’ll restrict free use and increase pop ups to get people to sign up
Anthropic is already profitable if you take out the enormous spend they have on training, which if the bubble bursts would leave them as the number 1 ai provider, it’s also insanely in demand and has trouble keeping up with its current product, they also have several products mythos etc lined up
That will have devastating ripple effects throughout the economy
I doubt it, I think it’d be closer to liberation day tariff’s or the oil crisis, it’ll go down for a bit, many articles will be written about how this is the worst thing ever then 6 months later it’ll be back up again
As said all the major players in this game are super profitable major companies, that won’t change
Despite Lemmy doomer posting about AI every 2.8 nanoseconds it is getting better:
We propose measuring AI performance in terms of the length of tasks AI agents can complete. We show that this metric has been consistently exponentially increasing over the past 6 years, with a doubling time of around 7 months. Extrapolating this trend predicts that, in under a decade, we will see AI agents that can independently complete a large fraction of software tasks that currently take humans days or weeks.
No one thinks companies like Google or Microsoft are going away.
What’s going to happen is that OpenAI and Anthropic will ultimately fold because they can’t be profitable, Google and Microsoft will scale back their supremely unprofitable LLM operations, Micron and NVIDIA will plunge in value because all of a sudden their bloated prices aren’t being paid by anyone, Oracle will suffer because OpenAI can’t pay its enormous bills with them, massive data center projects will end before completion, and a whole lot of smaller businesses that embraced all this madness will collapse.
That will have devastating ripple effects throughout the economy. It’s going to be a lot larger than the dotcom bubble bursting.
I do think the inflated valuations are in-fact existational threats to Microsoft and Google. Tech stocks are so over valued that they very well can go into a death spiral when investors no longer believe the company will grow exponentially. Its happened before, and will happen again. Thats why they are so desperate to hype AI. Thats the only illusion that have left to justify future growth.
I mean, the names will still be there, but you will have consolidation and buyouts and other changes of ownership. Some will continue as a shell of their former selves (like old school IBM), while others will just vaporise (Kodak). There’s not really a reliable mechanism for a companies valuation to shrink by several orders of magnitude and just cut back and continue as a stable smaller company.
Obviously, the people at the top will get government handouts to stay rich and it will be all our pensions that get cleaned out. Thats how this works. Cheer the bubble bursting, but only because the earlier the less harm for all of us. Ram won’t get cheaper either.
OpenAI maybe because it has a consumer focus and most of their users aren’t paying, more likely they’ll restrict free use and increase pop ups to get people to sign up
Anthropic is already profitable if you take out the enormous spend they have on training, which if the bubble bursts would leave them as the number 1 ai provider, it’s also insanely in demand and has trouble keeping up with its current product, they also have several products mythos etc lined up
I doubt it, I think it’d be closer to liberation day tariff’s or the oil crisis, it’ll go down for a bit, many articles will be written about how this is the worst thing ever then 6 months later it’ll be back up again
As said all the major players in this game are super profitable major companies, that won’t change
Despite Lemmy doomer posting about AI every 2.8 nanoseconds it is getting better:
https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
The only thing that worries me is that:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks-potential-us-recession-analyst-warns.html
The US economy might already be in the shitter and AI is just hiding it