I’ll say that given the way OpenAI and Anthropic have hideously overextended themselves (they have over a trillion dollars of financial commitments to companies like Oracle), it’s not impossible that the current crop of American LLM providers do just kinda… poof away. Traditional banks want nothing more to do with them, they’re getting majorly spooked. All that needs to happen is for private credit to lose confidence in them, which is already happening. When they’re out of cash, they’ll be on the hook for an absolute ridiculous amount of money and they’ll probably just get liquidated.
I’m sure there will be new companies that pop up, but they’re going to have to charge 10x what Anthropic is making enterprise customers pay, since inference likely still isn’t profitable at the price Anthropic is charging.
I don’t use LLMs as a knowledge base because if the problem is bad enough for me, I’m likely just grepping through kubernetes source code or something. That being said, I don’t necessarily have an issue with folks using an LLM that way as long as they fully understand exactly how bad it is at what it does. You’ll be fine if you lose access to LLMs, and that’s the number one thing in my book. Your friend? Not so much.
(As a fun bonus to all of this, Oracle is very likely to die if OpenAI can’t meet its commitments. Either way, Larry Ellison will probably stop being a billionaire, since almost all of his wealth is in Oracle stock).
The schadenfreude I will experience if I see these giants fall will be immeasurable. I’ll have to go visit my doctor have 4 hours, for reasons. I would love to see oracle, openAI, and anthropomorphic just dissolve, but it would be extra special if Microsoft was broken down to nothing. Google too, but while I don’t like Google, they’re definitely lower on the list than those first options, maybe ahead of Oracle, but mostly because I’m fortunate enough to not have to use any of their products.
I’ll say that given the way OpenAI and Anthropic have hideously overextended themselves (they have over a trillion dollars of financial commitments to companies like Oracle), it’s not impossible that the current crop of American LLM providers do just kinda… poof away. Traditional banks want nothing more to do with them, they’re getting majorly spooked. All that needs to happen is for private credit to lose confidence in them, which is already happening. When they’re out of cash, they’ll be on the hook for an absolute ridiculous amount of money and they’ll probably just get liquidated.
I’m sure there will be new companies that pop up, but they’re going to have to charge 10x what Anthropic is making enterprise customers pay, since inference likely still isn’t profitable at the price Anthropic is charging.
I don’t use LLMs as a knowledge base because if the problem is bad enough for me, I’m likely just grepping through kubernetes source code or something. That being said, I don’t necessarily have an issue with folks using an LLM that way as long as they fully understand exactly how bad it is at what it does. You’ll be fine if you lose access to LLMs, and that’s the number one thing in my book. Your friend? Not so much.
(As a fun bonus to all of this, Oracle is very likely to die if OpenAI can’t meet its commitments. Either way, Larry Ellison will probably stop being a billionaire, since almost all of his wealth is in Oracle stock).
The schadenfreude I will experience if I see these giants fall will be immeasurable. I’ll have to go visit my doctor have 4 hours, for reasons. I would love to see oracle, openAI, and anthropomorphic just dissolve, but it would be extra special if Microsoft was broken down to nothing. Google too, but while I don’t like Google, they’re definitely lower on the list than those first options, maybe ahead of Oracle, but mostly because I’m fortunate enough to not have to use any of their products.