Personal computers were a hype-bubble, until they weren’t.
The internet was a hype-bubble, until it wasn’t.
People having instant internet access to stock trading turned everything into hype-bubbles, and some of those - like BTC - are awfully stubbornly not popping - yet.
The Japanese commercial real-estate and US housing markets were supposed to be deflation-proof, but pump 'em up high enough and they will pop.
“AI” has “shown promise” since the 1960s. “Machine vision” was sorting and routing checks to banks for payment even back then, putting all kinds of clerks out of that job, into others. Same happened to telephone switchboard operators, “typing pools”, and later transcriptionists. Back in the 1990s I stood in the FDA presenting my company’s latest idea for a device, I stood next to a “computer vision for pap-smear screening” tool which was already, more than 25 years ago, out-performing standard human based pap-smear screening methods for false negatives by a rate of better than 2:1.
There are things LLMs can do today that they couldn’t do a year ago, and there are more people learning how to use LLMs effectively, just like there were people learning how to do more than just play Solitare on their personal computers in the early 1990s.
Personal computers were a hype-bubble, until they weren’t.
The internet was a hype-bubble, until it wasn’t.
People having instant internet access to stock trading turned everything into hype-bubbles, and some of those - like BTC - are awfully stubbornly not popping - yet.
The Japanese commercial real-estate and US housing markets were supposed to be deflation-proof, but pump 'em up high enough and they will pop.
“AI” has “shown promise” since the 1960s. “Machine vision” was sorting and routing checks to banks for payment even back then, putting all kinds of clerks out of that job, into others. Same happened to telephone switchboard operators, “typing pools”, and later transcriptionists. Back in the 1990s I stood in the FDA presenting my company’s latest idea for a device, I stood next to a “computer vision for pap-smear screening” tool which was already, more than 25 years ago, out-performing standard human based pap-smear screening methods for false negatives by a rate of better than 2:1.
There are things LLMs can do today that they couldn’t do a year ago, and there are more people learning how to use LLMs effectively, just like there were people learning how to do more than just play Solitare on their personal computers in the early 1990s.