Nope. We aren’t. Infact humans don’t work like that at all.

It’s actually amazing we ever learned actual probability math since it goes against our nature.

Here is an example.

I flip a coin 10x. It lands on tails all 10x.

I will believe that the next flip almost certainly has to be heads.

Just has to be. Right ?

Wrong.

It has a 50/50 chance. Just like all the other flips.

The previous flips have no impact on future flips. The coin does not remember.

Yet humans will believe the likelihood of a heads has increased with every tail flip.

When it has not.