I think there’s just not enough information to say with confidence one way or the other. Biden commissioned a report that was inconclusive, in part because of non-cooperation from the Chinese government. From Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assessment_on_COVID-19_Origins
Updated Assessment on COVID-19 Origins is a report of the United States Intelligence Community regarding the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which was commissioned on May 26, 2021, by President Joe Biden and submitted on August 24.[1]
Biden initially ordered his intelligence services to “redouble efforts” to investigate the virus’s origin.[2] The report, which was released on August 27, noted that the Intelligence Community did not reach a unanimous conclusion on the origin of the virus, with four agencies determining that the index case was likely a result of natural exposure, with another agency considering it as the result of a laboratory incident, although the community overall agreed that it was not linked to biological warfare. The community concluded that a conclusive investigation would require cooperation with the Chinese government.[1][3] Analysts considered that the investigation proved incapable of reaching a definitive conclusion on the origins of COVID-19, and the report was criticized by Chinese officials.
If true, that does not address the point that the necessary facts aren’t known, and therefore one can’t conclusively know whether the source of the virus is natural transmission or a lab leak.